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No one ever said the public is smart. This is from ESPN's Streak for the Cash game, in which it turns out more than half the public picked the Kings/Wiz to win the draft lottery.
The Kings and Wizards had a combined 44% chance
of getting the first pick, and the field had a 56% chance. That's all the math you have to do. Picking the Kings/Wiz was taking the 44% chance instead of the 56% chance.
People. Come on.