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The lottery is "rigged"- a statistical perspective.

This is what I'm going to prove to you in this article: The lottery is not rigged, or at least we don't have the information to prove that.

(For purposes of this article, I’m going to define "winning" as getting the first pick and "losing" as…not.)

Fair warning: there is a lot of sarcasm and math in this article. So if you didn’t understand Inception, then don’t read this article. If you didn’t watch Inception, then stop reading this article and go friggin’ watch Inception.

WE HAD A 25% CHANCE OF WINNING AND WE DIDN’T WIN? THE LOTTERY IS RIGGED!

THEY HOLD THE LOTTERY BEHIND CLOSED DOORS? THAT MUST MEAN IT’S RIGGED!

Can we see how ridiculous the first statement is? We had a 25% chance of winning, so that means we had a SEVENTY FIVE percent chance of losing. And we lost. Because there are 14 possible (weighted) outcomes, the probability of any single outcome is rather low.

Put a pin in that thought and follow me after the jump.

The standard dartboard is 17.75 inches in diameter. That’s 247.45 square inches in area. That’s 160000 mm^2 in area. I was having troubles finding the area of a standard dart tip, but let’s say that it’s about 1 square mm. If you were to look at that mathematically, the probability of hitting a single point that is 1 square mm in a dart board that is 160000 is .00000625. WHAT A SMALL PROBABILITY! So if I throw my dart and I hit the board, the probability of that event occurring is 0.00000625. Let that marinate.

OK back to basketball (or whateve

r sport Cory Higgins gets paid to play). There have been 19 drafts since the current lottery format started and the worst team has won the lottery twice- IT’S RIGGED! I’m not going to go into the complex analysis as to how I got here because it involves a 19 term polynomial, but it happened and the probability of only two teams winning is .08. EIGHT ONE HUNDRETHS? Well if you look, stats would have expected the team to win 4 or 5 times- the likelihood of those happening is only 20%. If this lottery crap happened for 100 years, there wouldn’t be a single outcome over 5%. If it happened 160000 times… you get the idea.

Even if you looked at the bulls getting rose and some other small percentages, it is hard to conclusively say it is rigged based on these numbers.

There are two ways to prove the lottery is rigged:

1) Use numbers: See what INDIVIDUAL balls come up significantly higher or lower than normal (that’s not too hard- there are only ten balls).

2) Weight the freaking balls.

We lost the lottery. Get the hell over it.

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