Pure Point Rating: A Primer

by MichaelProcton on Feb 7, 2012 12:17 PM EST

(Ben - from the FanPosts)

What's Pure Point Rating, you ask? Well, interestingly enough, I didn't know about it before I was handily linked over to the recent 10-day contract primer on SB Nation's NBA page. But it is a John Hollinger-designed "Sabermetric" state which attempts to measure a point guard's ability to play as a point guard should (by maximizing assists and minimizing turnovers through good decision-making, vision, and ballhandling.) Below the jump, we'll outline the formula and take a look at some of the NBA's leaders in the statistic.

As described by Ian Levy at Hickory-High.com, PPR was created by Hollinger, "because of frustration with the inaccurate pictures of a player's ability which can be drawn from Assist to Turnover ratio," which has always been one of my personal favorite measures of a point guard's competency in running an offense. The formula is as follows:

Pure Point Rating=100 x (League Pace/Team Pace) x ([(Assists x 2/3)-Turnovers] / Minutes.)

This allows for several factors to be taken into account. First, the statistic takes into account that a while an assist is typically worth two points, the passer can only take credit for getting the ball to a shooter who has gotten himself open and then makes the shot. 33% of the credit times two points=.66. This is left to stand as a lesser positive value to turnovers, which statistically cost a team about a point each. Then, the stat is adjusted for both tempo and minutes played, so both offensive style and playing time are eliminated as independent variables. In summary, the stat creates "a single numeric representation of a player's ability to handle the ball and create positive shot opportunities for their teammates," something that, to me, is a pretty cool mission to try and accomplish. So judge for yourself: take a look at this year's league leaders among those who have played 20+ minutes a night (according to DraftExpress) and see if you think it does a solid job of identifying the "true point guards" in the NBA.

Rank	Player	Team	PPR	League Rank, A:TO
1	Jose Calderon	TOR	11.58	2
2	Chris Paul	LAC	11.00	1
3	Steve Nash	PHO	9.98	9
4	Ricky Rubio	MIN	7.86	11
5	Tony Parker	SA	7.69	6
6	Andre Miller	DEN	7.64	7
7	Nate Robinson	OKC	7.28	4
8	Derrick Rose	CHI	6.53	12
9	Mike Conley	MEM	6.48	10
10	Kyle Lowry	HOU	6.40	15
11	Jarrett Jack	NO	5.99	8
12	Rajon Rondo	BOS	5.94	25
13	Ramon Sessions	CLE	5.88	17
14	D.J. Augustin	CHA	5.69	16
15	Earl Watson	UTA	5.64	23
16	Derek Fisher	LAL	5.33	5
17	Louis Williams	PHI	5.26	3
18	Raymond Felton	POR	5.25	20
19	Ty Lawson	DEN	4.76	18
20	Jason Kidd	DAL	4.60	19

Some other NBA notables?

* LeBron James:1.53

* Kobe Bryant: -0.53

* Dwyane Wade: 2.43

* Kyrie Irving: 0.81

* Andre Iguodala: 4.25 (league-leader among wing players)

* Jared Dudley: 1.28 (league-leader among PF-qualified players)

* Boris Diaw: 1.14 (2nd among PF-qualified players)

* Spencer Hawes: 1.25 (league leader among centers)

* DeMarcus Cousins: -7.55 (league worst)

* Corey Maggette: -5.01 (league-worse among wing players)

* Stephen Jackson: -3.40

And, finally, the bottom of the league among true PGs:

Player	Team	PPR
Russell Westbrook	OKC	-0.62
Jimmer Fredette	SAC	-0.89
Toney Douglas	NY	-1.27
Iman Shumpert	NY	-1.30
Brandon Knight	DET	-1.35

It will be an interesting statistic to track for our friend Kemba Walker, who currently sits at a 1.30 mark and never exceeded a 1.84 mark at UConn (last year.) Augustin, FYI, has never been below a 2.42 in the NBA or at Texas.

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Comments

what a neat explanation

of PPR

this will be a great tool to see how kemba is progressing in his changeover from combo guard to “pure point guard”

where is deron williams at if he were qualified?

by adamcawa on Feb 7, 2012 12:59 PM EST reply actions

Williams is at 3.60.

You can find the numbers on the comprehensive stat section of the player profiles over at DX.

Hi, my name is Michael Procton, and I will mindf*** you with logical yet (often) pessimistic retorts until the cows come home. Good Day.
--by Aisander D on Feb 4, 2012 7:59 PM EST
I gotta stop takin' my baths durin' Peter's shenanigans.

by MichaelProcton on Feb 7, 2012 1:07 PM EST up reply actions

I like this, but I was really hoping for a compendium of information about Win Shares

Or a simple list of the most used fallacies on internet chat boards.

by Aisander D on Feb 7, 2012 1:51 PM EST reply actions

You don't know how hard I laughed (or cried) when I saw Maggette at -5.

"With the third pick of the 2006 NBA Draft, the Charlotte Bobcats select, Adam Morrison, Gonzaga."

by FirstCat on Feb 7, 2012 4:20 PM EST reply actions

he's gonna have a low PPR since he's not, you know, a PPG

by adamcawa on Feb 7, 2012 4:26 PM EST up reply actions

Still though.

-5?

"With the third pick of the 2006 NBA Draft, the Charlotte Bobcats select, Adam Morrison, Gonzaga."

by FirstCat on Feb 7, 2012 4:30 PM EST up reply actions

Has Corey Maggette ever recorded an assist?

I thought you had to pass the ball first.

by Basketball Rambler on Feb 7, 2012 4:33 PM EST up reply actions

If only missed shots could count as assists...

Cory would be the record holder.

"With the third pick of the 2006 NBA Draft, the Charlotte Bobcats select, Adam Morrison, Gonzaga."

by FirstCat on Feb 7, 2012 4:45 PM EST up reply actions

I was really excited to read about this as I genuinely appreciate Hollinger's contributions to the stats side of sports

I’m not really seeing how this one is helpful, though.

First, I agree that A/T ratio is flawed in some ways, but I don’t see how those flaws aren’t easily overcome with common sense. I can’t imagine anyone, even those who use the A/T ratio, believing that Derek Fisher and Louis Williams are top 5 PGs. Only a fool would base player rankings on one number no much data goes into equation deriving that number.

I like Hollinger’s aim at assigning realistic valuation to the assist and the turnover, but I wonder if it wouldn’t be helped with some tweaking. Hollinger suggests that each possession in the NBA accounts for 1.02 points on average. An offense running off a turnover, however, can look a lot different from an offense off a rebound or a made basket. There may be no meaningful difference, but we should be looking at points per possession after turnovers in this equation.

When Hollinger takes minutes played into the equation, he’s kind of solving a problem that doesn’t exist. The A/T ratio, by the simple fact that it’s a ratio, eliminates most of the trouble of the “minutes played” conundrum. Player A may get more assists because he plays more minutes than Player B, but if their A/T ratios are equal, then we may conclude that Player A isn’t necessarily better. True, 3/1 looks better than 300/101, but again, most people have the common sense to overcome the misleading value.

I appreciate the consideration of pace as it seems necessary. I don’t really have much to say about it.

I’m not convinced that this stat really adds to our understanding of point guards, but it was an enlightening and interesting read. Great work!

by Basketball Rambler on Feb 7, 2012 4:24 PM EST reply actions

also, he counts an assist as two points

but not all baskets are worth two points

i would think most baskets in the nba are around 2.4 points or so when you average out the 2s and the 3s

by adamcawa on Feb 7, 2012 4:27 PM EST up reply actions

He may be canceling out the teams that shoot a large amount of threes.

"With the third pick of the 2006 NBA Draft, the Charlotte Bobcats select, Adam Morrison, Gonzaga."

by FirstCat on Feb 7, 2012 4:34 PM EST up reply actions

The assisted 3 pointer adds even further confusion and I didn't want to bring it up for that reason.

It would be nice to include assisted 3s vs. assisted 2s, and what the hell, even add nice passes that get a teammate a shooting foul. It may be really difficult to make all of that a part of the equation.

by Basketball Rambler on Feb 7, 2012 4:40 PM EST up reply actions

i'm simply suggesting

that the calculation use the average amount of points per fg in the NBA, two’s and three’s combined, whatever that may be – this would allow for player with higher assist numbers to stand out more over guys like Derek Fisher since they get more points per assist but the same amount of detracted points (-1) for turnovers

by adamcawa on Feb 7, 2012 4:44 PM EST up reply actions

basically assists X 2.4/3

by adamcawa on Feb 7, 2012 4:45 PM EST up reply actions

But then that allows for a bias in the numbers

Some teams shoot more threes by design. J. Nelson on the Magic may get an artificially inflated number because his team is built around 3 point shooters.

I understand the desire to account for the added value of a 3 point basket. I’m just saying it’s more difficult than it appears on the surface.

by Basketball Rambler on Feb 7, 2012 4:49 PM EST up reply actions

right

but shouldn’t a player be rewarded if his assists garner more points than other players? after all, players are rewarded/penalized based on team pace

by adamcawa on Feb 7, 2012 6:02 PM EST up reply actions

actually I wasn't making sense

If the same number is added to every player then it wouldn’t unfairly give some players an advantage.

by Basketball Rambler on Feb 7, 2012 8:20 PM EST up reply actions

yeah

i wasn’t thinking about that conceptually

my last post was wrong and irrelevent, as my initial post was simply that players with more assists should be rewarded higher

by adamcawa on Feb 7, 2012 9:04 PM EST up reply actions

I'm not quite sure what this is gauging.

But it seems strange for Kyrie to be below guys like Steve Blake, Kemba, Super Mario, and Randy Foye.

"With the third pick of the 2006 NBA Draft, the Charlotte Bobcats select, Adam Morrison, Gonzaga."

by FirstCat on Feb 7, 2012 4:32 PM EST reply actions

It's certainly not a measure of overall contributions to winning.

It doesn’t aim to be. It’s a measure of how well a player does traditional “point guard” activities on the court. Irving’s a rookie who’s seen a lot of PG duties since day one. It makes sense that veterans would have better looking numbers right now.

by Basketball Rambler on Feb 7, 2012 4:36 PM EST up reply actions

I just checked

and Blake, Kemba, Mario, and Foye all have a better A/T ratio than Irving so this new stat isn’t really changing anything when comparing this small sample of players

by Basketball Rambler on Feb 7, 2012 4:46 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed

It is a very interesting way to look at the “game management” duties of a PG. But I don’t think anyone would imply it correlates to wins, as the traditional PG is becoming more and more of a dying breed in the NBA.

Nice read.

6 feet of Smooth

by Bring Back Primoz on Feb 7, 2012 6:31 PM EST up reply actions

So whats the conclusion?

That “pure point rating” of your dominant ballhandlers has no correlation to wins or ability? Thats what it looks like to me. I couldn’t care less if anyone on our team makes a list that Jose Calderon sits atop right now. He is terrible, ask Toronto fans, they hate him because he dribbles out the entire shotclock and passes at the end ending up with a bunch of garbage assists. Sometimes there is a difference between a “pass first” point guard and a “pass last” point guard who plays to get the pass that sets up the shot every play. Steve Nash is kinda like that too. Also how my My Player PG in 2k12 plays :D. got dem stats

by CatNation on Feb 7, 2012 4:35 PM EST reply actions

The conclusion, as stated in reasonably succinct fashion in the intro...

is that PPR is a stat which measures a player’s ability in “maximizing assists and minimizing turnovers through good decision-making, vision, and ballhandling.” I think that has value.
And P.S.: any possession in which an assist is awarded is one which earns a team at least two points. Those two points are more than double the average score per possession for an NBA team. No such thing as a “garbage assist.”

by MichaelProcton on Feb 7, 2012 11:34 PM EST up reply actions

shows your understanding of basketball.

theres a reason the number 1 player on your list is leading the 28th ranked offense

by CatNation on Feb 9, 2012 11:06 AM EST up reply actions

I actually think you make a decent point about garbage assists.

If we can claim the existence of garbage buckets, then we have to accept that garbage assists may come along with them (just like garbage rebounds).

The PPR, however, isn’t really changing our understanding of Jose’s point guard skills. He’s already number 2 in A/T ratio, and he makes a slight jump to number 1 with this new stat. He is elite in terms of assist production vs. turnovers. No one can argue that simple fact. You’re right to point out that he’s pretty lame in other ways, but this is far from a comprehensive measure.

Best I can tell, this stat adjusts for pace and that’s where you see some players taking a big leap in rankings and a few others dropping. If there’s any benefit to the PPR, it’s that.

by Basketball Rambler on Feb 9, 2012 1:40 PM EST up reply actions

indeed toronto is one of the slowest pace teams in the league

and they’re 14th or so in assists per bucket, which makes what calderon does even more mind-boggling (remarkable?)

by adamcawa on Feb 9, 2012 3:58 PM EST up reply actions

They play very slowly?

by MichaelProcton on Feb 12, 2012 6:27 PM EST up reply actions

using this PG rank tool and its results brings forth a question

what happens to the bobcats if that trade for calderon goes thru?

you send diaw and chandler out, and we have a decent bench PF in reggie evans and whats listed above as the most effective PG in jose calderon. diaw would have been torontos malcontent, and we never would have seen the epic return of matt carrol, along with roster garbage dijon mustard and eddie najera. given the PG he wanted, would larry brown have been able to bring us out of the 1st round? telling is the fact that jordan nixed this, then nixed brown and then nixed the roster all together.

PG calderon-augustin-livingston
SG jackson- henderson
SF wallace- d brown
PF thomas- mcguire
C k brown- mohammad

does this roster in 2010 give us a shot at the playoffs, no doubt. does that change us having to move gerald walace later, probably. its all a big “what if”

"..and we have scott may coming back this season.." bob johnson quote before the start of 07-08 season, when he didnt even know his own players name.

by bobcatsbrendan on Feb 7, 2012 4:55 PM EST reply actions

Most effective PG is a huge stretch

Have you seen Caleron’s shooting lately? He knows how to get the ball to the open man and minimize turnovers. Those are important skills and they shouldn’t be disregarded, but Calderon is as close to one dimensional as you can get. Just like a guy who scores and does nothing else, Jose is far from a great over all player.

by Basketball Rambler on Feb 7, 2012 8:23 PM EST up reply actions

It's not quite attempting to define the "most effective" overall PG.

Just the one who is best at “maximizing assists and minimizing turnovers through good decision-making, vision, and ballhandling.” That obviously doesn’t take into account defense or individual scoring. However, your point is an interesting one. That certainly looks like a pretty solid team (and one with some decent—if not stellar—roster flexibility when it comes to players on big deals.)

by MichaelProcton on Feb 7, 2012 11:35 PM EST up reply actions

oops

add evans to that depth chart at the 4

"..and we have scott may coming back this season.." bob johnson quote before the start of 07-08 season, when he didnt even know his own players name.

by bobcatsbrendan on Feb 7, 2012 4:56 PM EST reply actions

I believe it the "tear down to build up"

but we MUST make trades and signings in addition to drafting well, otherwise its all for not. I dont want to be the kings and have a mixed up young batch of players. I dont want to be the kansis city athletics, whose baseball team in the 50’s and 60’s fueled the yanks thru a grooming system for young players to be moved to big city teams when they were ready, trading the KC team cash or spare parts for up and comming stars. I want a winner in charlotte. a sustained winner, so we better get this plan right.

"..and we have scott may coming back this season.." bob johnson quote before the start of 07-08 season, when he didnt even know his own players name.

by bobcatsbrendan on Feb 7, 2012 5:00 PM EST reply actions

I think it's just an interesting advanced stats

surely not a perfect measure by any means, but intriguing to think about.

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by Ben Swanson on Feb 7, 2012 11:20 PM EST reply actions

Yeah, that was my only point.

One I had never heard of before yesterday that I thought merited some exploration.

by MichaelProcton on Feb 7, 2012 11:27 PM EST up reply actions

Very interesting read Michael

Thanks.

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by Warmec on Feb 8, 2012 4:05 AM EST up reply actions

I like statistics since I have a strong math background

And I like the concept of this statistic. This site is kind of funny with some of the statistics debates and as MP mentioned several times above, there are other factors for PGs (like scoring and defense) that certainly have to be included in the rating of how a PG functions.

The tricky thing is that stats can lie, or at least be nitpicked or twisted to try to recognize an absolute truth. And sometime stats can be misleading so there is no way to totally rule out the eye test too. For instance, perhaps a football team’s defense is #1 against the run. Is that because they’re awesome at stopping the run or because they give up 1,000 passing yards a game and there is no need to run the ball against them?

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by Bring Back Primoz on Feb 8, 2012 12:51 PM EST reply actions