So where does Carmelo really rate?

by ClipCat on Aug 30, 2010 2:06 PM EDT

Nets fans have also been debating the merits of a Carmelo Anthony trade, too. This article from SB Nation sister site Nets Daily attempts to determine where Carmelo rates in the pantheon of NBA stars using the advanced stat, WARP. It also provides a strong rebuttal to our friend John Hollinger's PER.

If you prefer to believe Melo is a "superstar" who would take the Bobcats to the "next level," then you probably shouldn't read this. But if you still want to argue that position, please answer the writer's simple, direct question "why do the stats do right by all the other superstars, but not Melo?"

My position has been clear. Anthony is highly overrated due to his offensive inefficiency and weak defense. Signing him to a max contract will be a regretable decision for some foolish team that will end up weighted down by his contract and attitude for years to come. Giving up Gerald Wallace for the right to make that bad decision should be out of the question.

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Comments

Wallace should retire a Bobcat.

That is all.

by Newsinz on Aug 30, 2010 2:16 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Agreed, but hopefully not any time soon

by ClipCat on Aug 30, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions

So...

Judging by looking at the WARP through the formula Nets Daily used to evaluate Anthony at a 15.4 WARP (32nd overall) Carmelo Anthony is a more valuable player than Gerald Wallace who’s WARP is 11 per Basketball prospectus.

Anyone else reading it like I am?

Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.

by James Dator on Aug 30, 2010 3:51 PM EDT reply actions

A good GM would

consider salary, tattoos and facial hair in the analysis

by NMHesq on Aug 30, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Not Quite

Carmelo’s WARP last season was 9.5 and only 5.9 the previous season. The Nets blogger added each player’s WARP over the past two seasons so Wallace at 22.0 (11.8 + 10.2) bests Anthony’s 15.4 (9.5 + 5.9).

by ClipCat on Aug 30, 2010 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions

BUM BUM BUUUUUUUM........

by drapht00 on Aug 30, 2010 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Gotcha.

Though something has to be said for depth, right? Obviously a team with more depth is going to have their star have a lower WARP, correct?

Curious to see that LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Dwight Howard all lead when their team has no comparable backup for them. Same would apply to Collison, but there’s only one year of data. Notice how Paul’s WARP in 2008-09 was 26.1 then 10.7 in 2009-10 after they got Darren Collison?

That alone makes it a flawed metric… it relies too much on the team construction and less on the player.

Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.

by James Dator on Aug 30, 2010 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m no expert on WARP, but I believe the difference in Paul’s WARP over the last two seasons is primarily because Paul missed so much time last year due to injuries.

From the original post:

I’ve chosen to use the total WARP scores from the past two years, so as not to excessively penalize someone who missed significant time (Melo, Devin)

The same effect likely is depressing Anthony’s WARP some, too, and I was surprised to learn that Wallace has played in more games than Anthony in both of the last two seasons. So how much does Anthony move up in the ratings when they’re adjusted for time missed due to injuries by calculating WARP / Minutes Played?

OK, but he [Anthony] missed some time last year. Maybe he moves up if we look at his record on a per minute basis. In fact, he does: to 31st.

by ClipCat on Aug 30, 2010 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions

I thought I'd look closer to home

Look at Raymond Felton’s WARP:

4.3 in 2008-09 in 82 games
6.1 in 2009-10 in 80 games

If we adjust Felton’s 09-10 WARP by dividing his ‘WARP per game’ and bring it to a full 82 games season he ends up with a WARP of 6.25.

Net increase: 1.95

In this same time period DJ Augustin went from a WARP of 2.4 in 2008-09 to -0.3 in 2009-10. So it would seem that Augustin’s WARP was tied to Felton’s.

I think it’s a fascinating metric… I’m still not sold on it thought because it seems there are too many variables.

Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.

by James Dator on Aug 31, 2010 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions

I still save money

and keep Crash over Melo

SF vs #4
I still say 1 and 5 is what we need to improve on.
Also…Jax getting to a more ideal weight will result in a different Jax this year

by andrewlail76 on Aug 30, 2010 10:45 PM EDT reply actions

jeez

typing is not a strong suit tonight
I was saying a #3 SF vs #4
Why sink so much into upgrading at the SF position to improve by 1?

by andrewlail76 on Aug 30, 2010 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions

KEEP Gerald Wallace

I grow tired of stating this, but will continue saying so until this stupid Melo talk dies out. I’ve got nothing against Carmelo, and in fact, I would welcome him on our team, BUT NOT in exchange for Gerald Wallace. We can move everyone else on this team as far as I’m concerned, but keep Wallace.

Thus in doing so, there really is no need for Carmelo. So there. I don’t really think that Carmelo fancies playing in Charlotte either.

by Roger, Roger on Aug 30, 2010 11:31 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs