The Great Point Guard Debate
by Bring Back Primoz on Aug 27, 2010 10:29 PM EDT
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I think we're all in agreement that the PG position scares us the most right now. So what are we going to do about it?
I know we have talked about Calderon and Brooks but are there any other trade possibilities out there?
I read an article earlier this week (and I can't find it now, will post if I do) where an NBA Insider was saying the Bobcats were really high on Livingston and expected him to be the PG on opening day. He didn't think the Cats were going to make a move. Is that a bright idea?
Can Augustin get it together? Can Collins make any contributions?
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Center scares me more than PG
Worst comes to worst at PG we have an ineffective Augustin at the point basically being a paper tiger while Stephen Jackson becomes the primary.
As it stands we have a 33 year old starting center who hasn’t played anything close to a full season since 2005-06… and the backups…. Gana Diop and Kwame Brown.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
PG vs. C
That’s a fair point. I think it goes without saying that both of these positions are unknowns at best, frightening at worst.
Let me do something I should have done in the post (sorry – long term listener, first time caller syndrome) and give my opinion on why PG scares me the most. I think it’s the most important position on the floor, especially on a Larry Brown team. He demands a lot out of PGs. Having said that, I firmly believe DJ is not the answer. I didn’t watch the last 20 games of a terrible Wizards season so although Livingston’s numbers were impressive down the stretch, still a huge unknown for me in games that count. You need a PG you can trust.
I do think you can be successful with a rotation of centers, even if they’re marginal at best. You use up 6 fouls, rebound, and set screens. That’s really all LB asks of his centers anyway. I don’t think this year’s rotation is worse than last year’s, or at worst it’s only marginally worse. In the playoffs last year we faced the arguably the best C in the league and controlled him with Chandler, Nazr, and Ratliff fouls. I think you can survive with a platoon of C but you can’t survive without a #1 PG you can really trust.
by Bring Back Primoz on Aug 28, 2010 7:27 AM EDT up reply actions
I totally agree with the importance of the PG position in Larry Brown's system
But, we have seen what happens with DJ running the team, and it isn’t very bad. We were still wining games and he was okay running the point.
I guess what it comes down to is that I’m more comfortable with the drop off that has occurred between Felton and Augustin than I am the prospective drop off between Mohammad and Diop and/or Kwame Brown.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
couldnt disagree more. I saw a huge dropoff from Felton to Augustin last year. I saw leads Lost, a stagnent offense, and opposing PGs doing whatever they wanted, and for the most part those were backup PGs. At the C Theo did a great Job for us last year I think if Brown can fill that role and play solid D and Naz will provide offense I dont see any drop off.
The stats show otherwise
Basing this on the starting 5 of: PG/Jackson/Wallace/Daw/Mohammad
- We won 41% of games with Felton at PG (http://www.82games.com/0910/09CHA2.HTM See unit 1)
- We won 45% of the games with Augustin at PG (http://www.82games.com/0910/09CHA1.HTM See unit 2)
We also had a higher team +/- with Augustin running the 1st unit, were better defensively and better offensively.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
by James Dator on Aug 28, 2010 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Oh and before someone asks
- Augustin was also better than Felton with Murray/Wallace/Diaw/Mohammad
- Augustin was also better than Felton with Jackson/Wallace/Diaw/Ratliff
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
I am a little shocked by those stats James. I can only go by what my own eyes saw last year out of D.J.. I still have seen nothing about his game that tells me he is ready to lead this squad. I’m putting my hopes on Livingston or another player not with the team yet, not on D.J..
I was too
But the numbers don’t lie.
For whatever reason Augustin’s personal stats don’t look impressive, but we were better as a team with him paired with Jax and Crash than Felton was.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
I think if the team stays pat at pg that D.J. will have every oppertunity to show his worth to the Cats. That being said, i would be suprised if D.J. can beat out Livingston for the starting job. I feel like the things that Livingston does well are a better fit for what LB wants to do than the things that D.J. can offer. Just an opinion, gonna have to wait for camp to watch this unfold.
Hopefully our trade partner for DJ will use your stats to assess his value
I attended 2/3 of the home games and saw 2/3 of the away games via internet TV. DJ is not ready to be a starting PG. Felton is starting caliber.
by Ft.Mill Bobcat on Aug 28, 2010 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Not my stats
Anyone can look them up. I found them at 82games.com.
More people should try some time.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
by James Dator on Aug 28, 2010 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions
DJ & the 82 games stats...
Correlation vs. Cause & Effect. Sample size, etc. are factors. DJ was on the court with JAX, GW, Boris, and Nazr a total of 56 minutes. Felton was on the court with them 454 minutes. One must also consider the circumstances when DJ was on the court with 4 starters. Felton was rarely injured, so DJ’s minutes were to give Felton a rest. Usually the other team was resting starters at the time. Felton started every game he played and played during crunch time. His minutes were against the other teams starters.
By using these numbers, you can conclude our problem at Center is solved. When Nazr played with Felton, GW, JAX, and Murray, our winning % was 36%. When Boris played with the same 4, the winning % was 62%. Therefore, we should be fine starting Boris at Center. Makes about as much sense as making DJ our starting PG.
by Ft.Mill Bobcat on Aug 30, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe the Boris situation proves that he is a bigger liability at PF than C?
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
by James Dator on Aug 30, 2010 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Augustin
I just want to see the 08-09 DJ again. IMO, he has to shoot efficiently to be effective. I think (hope) last year was an aberration and believe he will start knocking down shots again.
by Bring Back Primoz on Aug 28, 2010 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions
It's quite easy
DJ is a worse player and his teammates know this. When he is on the floor, they all go “Ah crap, now we’ve got to work harder.” And so they do. They more than make up the difference, so they win more games when DJ is the PG.
And yeah, this post is a joke.
by Tim Rudisill on Aug 29, 2010 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions
How is Mohammad and Diop and or Kwame a drop off from last season?
We lost Chandler (who was injured and ineffective much of the season) and Ajinca (who didn’t play at all). If Theo was any better than Kwame we would have resigned him. I expect the center position to look pretty similar to last season
Felton was far more important to Charlotte making the playoffs than any of the centers we lost. That makes the pg change the more important position to look at. I agree w/ Primoz that center by committe is doable, Letting Jax run our offense unchecked is not. Yea he has a lot of assists but he also has a lot of turnovers. And I know I’m not the only one who hated to see him kill us by jacking threes early in the shot clock.
I agree that fixing the PG situation is more important that improving at C.
However, when we had Primo as our starting Center in our final year with us, that proved what a disaster having a weak Center can be. Primo is why we made desperate trades for Nazr and later Diop.
I think we are OK with Nazr, Diop, Kwame, and occasionally T-Time & Boris at Center as long as we have a strong supporting cast including a PG that is at least equal to Felton.
by Ft.Mill Bobcat on Aug 28, 2010 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Diaw
You touched on a good point. We have the option of going small and playing Diaw at the 5 some. Really the only negative about trading Diaw is his flexibility. He may not do anything great but he can do multiple things okay. Phoenix survived playing him at C and with the right matchups, we could have a pretty athletic team on the floor with Diaw at C.
by Bring Back Primoz on Aug 28, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
We could have a REALLY athletic team on the floor with
Tyrus at the 5 and Derrick Brown at the 4
by andrewlail76 on Aug 29, 2010 10:25 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Bangarang!
and1 keyed on the primary problem the Bobcats will have running the offense through Jackson. The man chooses shots the way an alcoholic chooses booze. All it takes is a glimpse of ANYTHING and he wants it. If given the choice of pumping the ball in the general direction of the hoop or looking for an open man to pass the rock to, he’s going to make the same decision every time. Follow that process through to the logical conclusion. Coach Brown starts getting into Jackson’s face about running the set plays, Jackson starts complaining to the media and jawing back at the coach during games. All the problems Jackson had with authority in the past come right back to the front page of the Observer sports section.
It will get ugly. Having Thomas, Wallace, and Jackson unencumbered by other responsibilities will more than make up for weakness at the five but it all turns to crap without a dependable anchor at the one.
My sources can beat up your sources
by Ourdaywillcome on Aug 28, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
What is there to interpret though?
We won a higher pecentage of games, scored more and allowed less.
Doesn’t seem much is open for interpretation.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
Numbers don't lie
but they do mislead when you cherry pick the ones that help you prove your point and ignore any evidence that may suggests you’re wrong.
Compare Felton’s and D.J.’s PER and opponent PER from last season.
Net per 48 min (PG postion): Felton = +2.1, D.J. = -2.3
Do you understand how that win% is complied? You’re right he does have a higher winning % by less than 2 points. How meaningful is that 2 percentage point difference? Let’s look at other Floor Time Stats:
Net points: Felton (126), D.J. (12). Felton played a hell of a lot more than D.J. for a reason.
Net 48 (comparing offense and defense): Felton (2.3), D.J. (0.4). Again Felton’s more productive.
Per game %:
Shooting%: Felton (.459), D.J. (.386). Isn’t D.J. supposed to be the better shooter? Similar discrepancy for eFG%.
Assisted baskets: Felton (38%), D.J. (51%). For a scoring pg, D.J. was worse at creating his own shot.
Blocked: Felton (6%), D.J. (11%). Obvious edge to Felton.
Foul Drawing: Felton (6.3%), D.J. (9.0%). Clear edge to D.J. (finally!)
Assists per 48: Felton (8.2 to 2.9 t/o), D.J. (6.3 to 2.4 t/o)
Offensive points per 100 possession: Felton’s on/off court net = +2.4. D.J.’s on/off court net = -1.4
There are some numbers you can look at that are higher for D.J. than for Raymond, but to just pick those out and indiscriminately say that means D.J. is better, or the team was just as good w/ him on the court is misleading.
So I would argue that there’s a lot of interpretation that needs to be done when looking at statistics. But that shouldn’t be news at this point. We’ll just continue to disagree on how statistics are used.
For the record, I hope w/ everything in me that D.J. at least returns to his rookie form, shoots a decent % from outside, drives the lane and draws fouls, and does a passable job on defense. I think he can, just can’t say that it’s a given.
The point of this comment is to say that the point guard position represents the biggest change from last season and is therefore the biggest point of concern going into the season. It’s not to bash D.J., or demand a trade, or say that I wish we had paid more money to Felton.
Just realized that you were looking at a different winning% than I was
As I understand it you were looking at how Felton vs D.J. performed w/ the other 4 starters last season.
Felton played 454 minutes with this unit. D.J. played 77 minutes, which is less than 20% of Felton’s time w/ the squad. Correct me if I’m wrong, but these particular stats don’t speak to who the opponents were these units were on the court. We all know that LB didn’t have a lot of faith in D.J. last year. Possible conclusion: Felton faced tougher competition. Possible alternative: LB is an idiot who can’t see that D.J. played way better with the starters (I don’t buy this one based on what I saw when I watched the games).
Also...
Charlotte’s winning % was 100 when D.J., Felton, Wallace, Vlade, and Diaw all played on the floor together.
Obvious conclusion: We never should have traded for Jax. We never lost when Vlade was on the floor with this line up. Should have started every game this way.
I know I sound like a jerk, but I’m just having fun! No disrespect meant.
I totally see what you're saying
For a 1 on 1 comparison Felton vastly exceeds Augustin, that is clear. I also understand that the sample size is smaller.
But you have to admit it is rather bizzarre, it’s not just 77 minutes alone he had better win %s with all three of the aforementioned units for a total of 165 minutes, almost 4 full games. This doesn’t account for competition and there’s no reason it should be this way… but for whatever reason, it is.
As for the Deej, Felton, Wallace, Vlad, Diaw lineup… that was 21 minutes not even a half of basketball. My sample is small, but that is ultimately meaningless.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
Not to beat a dead horse... but I was just thinking about it this morning
I remebered that D.J. started two games last season, which likely account for many of the 77 minutes he played w/ the Jax/Wallace/Diaw/Nazr unit. He played over 40 minutes in each of the games that he started, so I think it’s a safe bet (though I haven’t cross referenced to see if Wallace and Nazr started those games or not, so correct me if I’m wrong).
The two teams he played as a starter were Detroit and Minnie. So you can make the case that his numbers look so good with the starting 5 from last season largely because he was playing the worst of the worst in the NBA.
Again, I’m not trying to drive this thing into the ground, I just thought it was worth mentioning as it can maybe help explain how, in my opinion, statistics should be interpreted. I think you have to use a critical eye even if something seems obvious.
Also, I was just kidding about the Vlad lineup being good.
Just checked and Nazr didn't even play in the Detroit game I mentioned above
But all they all started the Minnie game and played heavy minutes. I’d say 50% of that 77 minutes came against Minesota. Anyone bored yet?
I'm getting there...
When does the season start? Then we can stop postulating about PERs, win % and clutch scoring stats and concentrate on the important stuff W’s and L’s.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
by James Dator on Aug 30, 2010 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
+1 too true PG is the most important position on the court which is why we will trade for a PG. If the Bobcats are high on Livingston it will be as a backup. Yes Augustin can get it togather as a Backup Combo Guard. He is not a starting PG and has not shown Playmaking ability or the ability to guard starting PGs. When the Cats make a trade for a starting PG Augustin will be gone. It would be nice to address both PG and C positions, but we can Plug deffensive Centers in and be succsesfull like last year.
Guess we'll know more in camp
Wait for it…
by andrewlail76 on Aug 28, 2010 12:03 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I really like Livingston. I understand the health concerns, but i think he was a real steal in free agency. That being said, i would rather have him coming off the bench. I want him to be able to play in as many games as possible, and that will only happen with him not logging huge minutes. I want this kid running the team at the end of games and in other pressure situations. He is a very cerebral PG that takes care of the ball and doesn’t turn it over. I have to be honest, i’m not a D.J. fan. He can shoot the 3 and makes clutch free throws, but i just don’t see anything else about his game that is very appealing. He gets discouraged if his shot isn’t falling. He is a defensive liability. With all of that being said, we are better off at this position than we are at center…Ugh.
Starting PG and C not yet on team?
I think it’s safe to say that Coach Brown and MJ have lost confidence in DJ. His game hasn’t meshed well with Brown’s system. Questionable draft pick to say the least as they should have anticipated that.
Liv will be great off the bench but can’t be counted on for big minutes. Collins is obviously a project.
So the question is who? So far, my favorite senerio is the Aaron Brooks three way. He’s young, cheap and just starting to emerge. I bet Jordan gets in on a Denver deal one way or another. I wouldn’t mind Devin Harris either if Melo goes to NJ. He’s not cheap but he’s still young and he’s a top 10 PG already.
As for Center, I do agree with BBP that C by committee seems to work for Coach Brown ala Pistons Championship team. But James is also right that we are dangerously thin at that position, especially considering that Nazr will get traded this year, possibly this summer. What about a trade with the Kings of Nazr and Diaw for Dalembert and Whiteside?
PG and C are the two positions of weakness on this team. I’m sure that will be rectified via trade very soon. Great post!
Crawford for Jax
I’d do that if a reasonable contract extension could be worked out
Eww... no
I don’t see a single way Jamal Crawford is better than Stephen Jackson
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
Crawford and Jackson are similar players to me
I’d make the trade because Crawford is a bit younger, a better 3 point shooter and a little more efficient as a distributor. I think he’d complement Liv and DJ at PG a little better, and he should have a little more left in the tank than Jax. Those are all incremental differences to be sure, and I don’t have any problem with not making that trade either.
Crawford is a better shooter, and better at creating his own shot… but Jackson is a better rebounder, a better defender and couple that with the fact Jackson has become the vocal leader of the Bobcats I feel that the gains are outweighed by the loss.
Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.
by James Dator on Aug 31, 2010 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
If you're a starter...
…do you have to play 40+min per night?
Perhaps you share time with the backup
You play the first 7-8 min of each qtr then your backup comes in to give a rest
Everyone needs to note Liv’s comment
Entering the league, he never stretched…now he has to stretch for 30 minutes just to play.
That being said,I don’t think he’ll be bouncing on and off the bench for the entire game.
If he gets the starting nod, he can’t camp on the bench for extended minutes. If he did, either he stiffens up and risks injury, or he’s on the bench playing UNO
It will be college ball to an extent with multiple substitutions throughout the game. I know this sounds the total opposite of last year, but LB knows what he has this year. He has real talent in Hendo and Derr Devil, and I think he’ll be much more apt to go to the bench. It’s up to him to make what he has work.
by andrewlail76 on Aug 28, 2010 10:13 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
As a former dancer...
you keep yourself stretched out while you are not performing. Sure, he stretches before the games, but he can stretch during them as well. It would not surprise me to see him stretching on the bench.
by Tim Rudisill on Aug 29, 2010 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I kinda figured that
after I typed it all
by andrewlail76 on Aug 30, 2010 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions
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