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The Bobcats' best and worst case scenarios

I don't remember if I heard this from someone else first -- probably someone British, because it sounds Douglas Adams-ish -- so I'm tentatively taking credit for making it up: It's not really a worst case scenario unless it involves an earthquake and a paternity test gone wrong, and it's not really a best case scenario unless it involves an unmarked Swiss bank account and multiple Olympic gold medals.

With that in mind, the Bobcats' worst reasonably likely scenario this season is a horror show, while the best reasonably likely scenario would catapult Michael Jordan's management record from punch line to tale of redemption. After the jump, I'll describe how the season plays out in my nightmares and in my unguarded fantasies. All of this is assuming the roster doesn't undergo any more major changes.

Star-divide

NIGHTMARE

1 -- Gerald Wallace gets injured, misses most of the season, and his career is threatened. This is my biggest long-term fear, as a Bobcats fan. Basically, if Crash goes down, the season's toast, and if his career gets sidetracked, we lose a legitimate franchise cornerstone. Knowing how concussions affect athletes, too, his injury history will be a risk factor the rest of his time in the NBA.

2 -- D.J. Augustin and Shaun Livingston stink. The Bobcats can be competitive, though probably not a playoff team, if these two guys both soil the bed, like Augustin did at the start of last season. However, after Gerald Wallace's health, I suspect the Cats' PG play will have the most influence on their final record.

3 -- Larry Brown bounces; the Cats hire some incompetent retread like Mike Dunleavy. I continue to maintain the Bobcats have gotten better because the players got better, but going from Sam Vincent to Brown made a huge difference, at the very least, in the professionalism the players bring to games and their crispness on the floor.

4 -- Stephen Jackson grows unhappy and pulls a power play... again. For all his gifts on the floor and his knack for uniting teammates, Jax has some pretty pronounced Respect Issues. From what I've gathered following his career, Jackson seems to have a pretty rigid code of honor, and when anyone breaks that code, it causes a problem. (/Amateur Psychologist)

5 -- Tyrus Thomas reverts to the Bad Tyrus that infuriated and frustrated Bulls fans for years. In many ways, this has all the hallmarks of the Boris Diaw Era. Monsieur Nonchalant came over to Charlotte and suddenly started shooting threes at 42%, on top of distributing and doing little things like it was 2006 all over again. But then the 2009-10 season happened, and we realized that Boris was the same guy he'd been every other year of his career, and there was a reason why both Atlanta and Phoenix had grown weary of his game. Thomas has been a very good defender, but there's a real chance he doesn't "get it", to use Dwyer's term, and Brown grows so annoyed by the freelancing, freewheeling, seat-of-his-pants play that he doesn't see the floor more than 20 minutes per game.

6 -- Gerald Henderson and Derrick Brown don't play.

7 -- The team wins 20 games.

FANTASY

1 -- Gerald Wallace takes another small step forward, maintaining the All-NBA level defense, but adding consistency to his jumper, and ten percentage points to his free throw shooting, to go with his elite rebounding and slashing skills. In other words, he goes from being a borderline All-Star to the obvious choice to supplant Paul Pierce as a perennial SF for the East.

2 -- D.J. Augustin and Shaun Livingston both improve and form a perfect platoon. When the situation calls for offense, D.J. plays, and he repeats his rookie season's three-point shooting while showing a newfound ability to slither among the bigs in the paint, drawing contact for free throws. Meanwhile Livingston proves to be a defensive beast, able to guard ones and twos equally well. He allows the Bobcats to put out a lineup entirely 6-6 and taller, making it near impossible for anyone this side of Dirk Nowitzki and Andrea Bargnani to shoot over the defense effectively.

3 -- Larry Brown continues to mellow and display a surprising willingness to work with the players' personalities as they are, instead of trying to force them into roles that suit them ill. This results in a faster game. Since Wallace and Thomas are exceptional flying down court on the wings, and neither point guard is noted for his ability to create in the half court, the Cats embrace the Red Auerbach truism that the easiest baskets are uncontested layups and dunks and use a smothering defense to spark fast breaks, with forwards finishing at the rim and guards shooting threes or faking then driving. Like in the ABA, Larry!

4 -- Stephen Jackson continues to mellow and settles from firecracker to relentless professional. What I love most about Jax is that he so obviously cares about doing his job well and takes great pleasure in team success. There's a balance somewhere in there below KG-esque barking, but above laconic jogging, where Jax can fire everyone up and lead by example without making everyone uncomfortable and without letting bumps in the road negatively affect his play.

5 -- Tyrus Thomas becomes every bit the player Gerald Wallace was when he was blocking two shots per game and grabbing two steals per game, only with more rebounds.

6 -- Gerald Henderson and Derrick Brown each play over 1,000 minutes and match last year's production from, say, Arron Afflalo and Darrell Arthur, respectively.

7 -- The Bobcats finish with 50 wins, and win two playoff series.

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Good stuff David

Pretty much my same sentiments.
I’d like to add:
NIGHTMARE
Dampier is waived. In my mind, Dampier has to be traded. If we traded a healthy Tyson for two bad contracts and one $13 million rebate, and all we end up with is two bench warmers, I will not be a happy man.

Lemonade was a popular drink and it still is,
I get more props and stunts than Bruce Willis
- Guru, of Gangstarr

by WhatAboutBob_cats on Jul 30, 2010 12:59 PM EDT reply actions  

I think part of the point of this post is to ignore all rumors and what may/may not happen roster wise and just consider what we have now. From that point of view, it’s spot on and both sides are completely realistic to me. Except maybe the “win 2 playoff series” part. You can’t get past the second round without playing Miami/Orlando/Boston. Not good.

by drapht00 on Jul 30, 2010 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

Agreed. Best case scenario would be to win one series. For all of the talk around center and PG, our fatal flaw last year was we had no one who could consistently knock down perimeter shots. That really hasn’t been addressed at all. I guess if you want to reach, you can say DJ remembers how to shoot and Carroll gets a lot more minutes and contributes more than most of us expect.

Fans never fall asleep at our games, because they're afraid they might get hit by a pass

by Bring Back Primoz on Jul 30, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Winning a series will be difficult

In my eyes, the East will probably look like this at the end of the season:

1. Miami
2. Orlando
3. Chicago
4. Boston
5. Atlanta
6. Charlotte
7. Milwaukee
8. Doesn’t matter because the Heat will destroy them

I think reasonable minds can agree that the teams listed about will represent the East in the playoffs. As currently constructed, the Cats will have to play over their heads to beat one of the top 4 seeds in the East. I don’t think the Cats have to win a playoff series for the season to be a success. I will be happy if they can force a game 6 or 7 in the 1st round.

I am cautiously optimistic that Jordan and Co. will make a move in the next few weeks that will give the Cats a better chance of getting into the 2nd round.

"I could never be a thug, they don't dress this well." - Malice

by Julius Coxswain on Jul 30, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

you forgot about New York

i know theyve been sucking lately, but Amare isnt just a pushover. maybe they get that 8 or 7 seed.

i cant lie, seeing Charlotte at 6 right now humors me. knowing that we’re in a worst position than we were last year makes me worried about a playoff run this year. unless we bag ourselves a C or PG soon, i think it will be difficult for us to get anything above 7.
this new East is killer. there are so many teams you have to worry about. Milwaukee reloaded and they have a pretty good team.
New York, like i said, wont be an easy win anymore (for us)
Atlanta has a chance at sliding
Washington could play spoiler this year

without a doubt though, the SouthEastern division is the best division in the league.

--(insert quote, lyric, or joke here)

by StudMuffin15 on Jul 30, 2010 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

I think we will be 7 or 8, and that Milwaukee will be higher in the seeds per reasons above.

New York i’m not sure on because I think with Wall and Gilbert that Washington are a better chance to make the playoffs.

by Warmec on Jul 30, 2010 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm going out on a limb here.

1 Orlando (Howard will be even stronger and I think they’re the team to beat)
2 Chicago (Although this is subject to change depending on how they flesh out the last roster spots)
3.Miami (I think by the end of the season they will have at least 1 major injury and a whole lot of infighting that will cost them some wins)
4.&5 Atlanta/Charlotte (Actual seed will depend on what the Bobcats do between now and December roster-wise)
6. Milwaukee (I think they’ll surprise a little bit, but not much)
7 Boston (Age = injuries and I’m not too confident about the changes they’ve made in the off season)
8 Knicks (mostly by default but the Nets could also crawl in to the slaughter slot)

My sources can beat up your sources

by Ourdaywillcome on Jul 30, 2010 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

that is a pretty far limb right there

the only thing i blatantly disagree with is probably Atlanta. i dont think they will make it higher than 6 quite honestly. they seem to be slipping, and unless they make a major roster move, there’s no way they can consistently compete. giving Joe Johnson that max contract will hurt them, as i think last year was his prime year.
Chicago is for sure a top tier Eastern team now, and i do question Boston’s viability.

lets see what happens

--(insert quote, lyric, or joke here)

by StudMuffin15 on Jul 31, 2010 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

I disagree.

Giving JJ the max contract will hurt them in the long run, but ATL still has more talent than most teams in the East. They didn’t get better, but they didn’t get worse either.

I agree that Chicago is likely to make a jump after adding Boozer. Their starting 5 looks more than solid right now, and if they can find a shooting guard that can, you know, shoot, they’ll be great. I can’t put them above Miami, but they’re top 5 for sure.

Unfortunately, until we get a real pg and perhaps a better center I don’t see Charlotte being better than ATL or Milwaukee. Charlotte, as of right now, is probably fighting for the 7 and 8 seeds right now.

by and1droid on Aug 2, 2010 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think

the Bucks are improved and will be better than our current roster. Look out for Philly also as Collins teams always improve dramatically in his 1st yr along with the emergence of pg Holiday.

by hotrodhart on Jul 31, 2010 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

I dont ever want to see the words Healthy and Tyson used like that

I’ll admit that trade was a headscratcher but tyson chandler wasnt a good fit for the team

R.I.P. Scott Kazmir 2005-2008

by raysfan81 on Jul 30, 2010 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why wasn't he a good fit?

When healthy, he was a good defender to shore up the frontcourt with good shotblocking. It’s one thing to say “well, Tyson wouldn’t be healthy anyway as he’s injury-prone year-in and year-out” but he wasn’t a bad fit for the Bobcats. With the size to play the 5 and the athleticism and defensive skills, he was a good fit for a defensive minded, long, athletic team like the Bobcats.

Lemonade was a popular drink and it still is,
I get more props and stunts than Bruce Willis
- Guru, of Gangstarr

by WhatAboutBob_cats on Jul 31, 2010 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

What about center play?

The premise is barring any further moves—my nightmare involves weakness at both PG and C. If Diop is playing considerable minutes, we’re dead.

by LonghornedBobcat on Jul 30, 2010 1:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Nightmares for someone sitting close (like Ourday)

1) The season is going down the tubes and Jack gets tossed from a game. On the way out of the tunnel, someone says something or throws something at him and in an ill-placed cross, Ourday is cold-cocked.

2) Ourday looks away for a second to talk to his wife and is nailed by a Diop free throw.

I don’t know which scenario is more likely ……………..

On a more serious note, a major injury is always the most likely nightmare. But we could slowly bleed to death with PG and Center play.

Fans never fall asleep at our games, because they're afraid they might get hit by a pass

by Bring Back Primoz on Jul 30, 2010 1:48 PM EDT reply actions  

I worry more about C than PG

Especially if we keep Boris. Then we have him and Jax that the offense will run through. DJ can bring the ball up and pass it to one of them, then just camp on the 3 pt line. Livingston can post up and play more of a 3’s role, abusing smaller guards. The length on this team is going to be crazy, much like the Hawks.

My brief best-case-scenario addition: DJ enrolls in the Tony Parker summer camp to learn how to shoot the tear drop, floater, and just be crafty around the basket without getting blocked.

by drapht00 on Jul 30, 2010 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Diop free throw, obviously

1 out of his every 2 free throw attempts have nothing to do with the rim or net. I always get a kick out of the encouraging rounds of applause from the Cable Box whenever he makes one, like a terribly coordinated pre-schooler who finally made a basket in the YMCA 4-5 age league. Even the opposing team’s parents are applauding!

by Newsinz on Jul 30, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hmmm....

1. More likely is that Jackson will pick up my wheelchair and brain someone in it. After he posts bail, he pays me off for assisting him and Mypaydaywillcome!
2. Diop at the free throw line means he’s getting playing time and THAT is a far more frightening scenario than having “Spaulding” tattooed in reverse on the side of my face.

My actual nightmare can best be summed up in this headline:

George Shinn Buys Bobcats – Says He Misses Charlotte

SHUDDER~

My sources can beat up your sources

by Ourdaywillcome on Jul 30, 2010 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Seeing that close up of Jacks ugly mug makes me itch for some NBA action

When’s the season start?

on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city

by southtunnel on Jul 30, 2010 6:23 PM EDT reply actions  

if thats how you feel

imagine how pressure feels

--(insert quote, lyric, or joke here)

by StudMuffin15 on Jul 30, 2010 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh God, I don't know whether to laugh or puke

on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city

by southtunnel on Jul 31, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

insert Greg Oden penis joke here

id put the picture, but its somewhere else…

--(insert quote, lyric, or joke here)

by StudMuffin15 on Jul 31, 2010 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

here it is!

--(insert quote, lyric, or joke here)

by StudMuffin15 on Jul 31, 2010 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think two of David's points...

Are interlinked and make me equally nervous. If the young players, henderson and brown, don’t play, we’re looking at another season of too many minutes for Gerlad Wallace’s body to take. I’m scared LB will give Wallace similar minutes to last season, certainly doubling or tripling the chance of an injury. I think the same holds true for Jax.

by Aisander D on Jul 31, 2010 12:53 PM EDT via mobile reply actions   1 recs

Well there is a reason to hope he doesn't

LB may not be so hell bent on “playoffs or bust” this season as his legacy of quick turn arounds is now intact.

Also, Hendo and D.Brown are no longer rookies. This may just be pie in the sky but a year in LB’s system has to count for something right?

The team looks to be adding all the live bodies they can at the 4. That hopefully means that Wallace won’t be asked to play out of position anymore.

by and1droid on Aug 2, 2010 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

worst case scenario:

Jax and pressure call it quits

--(insert quote, lyric, or joke here)

by StudMuffin15 on Aug 2, 2010 12:00 AM EDT reply actions  

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