All Hope is Lost?
After losing a third playoff game, Bobcats fans are beginning to worry about next season. If the Bobcats can't beat the Magic, all hope is lost. Not so fast. How would the Bobcats and other NBA playoff teams have fared this season if all NBA teams had their current roster for the entire season? The best indication of this is to look at the win/loss record of the games played after many of the key roster adjustments were made.
How would the season have ended if only the games played on or after January 1, 2010 counted? While the number of games played in 2010 onward varied by team, the fewest games played by any one team in 2010 was 48. Therefore I set 48 games as the base. I counted the first 48 games played in 2010 for each playoff team to see how they would compare with each other.
- 35-13 Cleveland
- 33-15 Orlando
- 32-16 Milwaukee
- 30-18 Charlotte
- 29-19 Atlanta
- 28-20 Miami
- 26-22 Boston
- 25-23 Chicago
Charlotte would have the #4 seed and home court advantage against the Atlanta Hawks. With the scenario above, the Bobcats would be favored to knock off the Hawks and then likely face the Cavaliers in the 2nd round. With a 3-1 record against the Cavs this year, the Bobcats would have a legitimate shot at reaching the Eastern Conference Finals. Orlando would face Boston and then either Milwaukee or Miami to play in the finals. Do the modified 2010 standings above predict how the Bobcats might finish next year if they maintain their current roster? If not, at least It is a good sign. As evidenced by their playoff performance after 3 games, it is clear the Bobcats need another offensive weapon if they hope to take down the Magic in the Eastern Conference Finals next year. We'll be waiting to hear from Larry Brown and Michael Jordan during the off-season.
The Bobcats ended up with possibly the worst possible scenario during the 2010 playoffs. The #7 seed pitted the Bobcats against the Orlando Magic, who are possibly the best team in the NBA.
How would the West stack up? I used the same 48 game formula above. For tiebreakers I only looked at games played after January 1, 2010. Utah would much prefer the #1 seed to the #5 seed. Can the Lakers beat the Thunder without the home court advantage? Maybe next season we will know.
- 34-14 Utah
- 32-16 Phoenix (wins tiebreaker)
- 32-16 Denver
- 31-17 OK City (wins tiebreaker)
- 31-17 LA Lakers (2nd in tiebreaker)
- 31-17 Dallas
- 29-19 Portland
- 29-19 San Antonio
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Very interesting
I have to say it…all us RoF fellas have really stepped up our game on here with some really good insight…
Bravo guys…
Come on cats…by my watch, you’re due for a winning streak of at least 6 games..
Just you wait Andrew... I, too, have stepped up my FanPost analyses, but also, tomorrow I will unveil my newest sign
Lemonade was a popular drink and it still is,
I get more props and stunts than Bruce Willis
- Guru, of Gangstarr
by Ben Swanson on Apr 24, 2010 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Please...don;t get suspended...
You know how Stern is…
He;ll have you spanking a lady cat with a tuna
by andrewlail76 on Apr 24, 2010 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions
no it's a different, better sign
Besides cardboard gerald, I’d say it’s maybe my best yet. To hype it up a little more, it would be the answer to this question: what if you’d put the effort of the Hendo photoshop into making a sign?
Lemonade was a popular drink and it still is,
I get more props and stunts than Bruce Willis
- Guru, of Gangstarr
by Ben Swanson on Apr 24, 2010 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions
The title of this article isn't compelling enough - can someone send a recommendation?
by Ft.Mill Bobcat on Apr 24, 2010 10:33 AM EDT reply actions
How about "The Bobcats Really Finished Forth!"
"There are two ways to argue with a woman, and neither of them work."; Carlos Boozer
I'll tell ya about the Magic It'll free your soul but it's like trying to tell a stranger 'bout rock n roll
The only way to stop LeBron is Smith and Wesson, but even that's a double team.
by NC Magic Fan on Apr 24, 2010 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Good Point
Eliminate the “what if” and make a bolder statement to entice the someone to click.
The newspapers like the Observer do this all the time. I’ll see what other suggestions come in and make the change.
by Ft.Mill Bobcat on Apr 24, 2010 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions
After attending today's game, I had to go with "All Hope is Lost?"
by Ft.Mill Bobcat on Apr 24, 2010 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions
true that.
"There are two ways to argue with a woman, and neither of them work."; Carlos Boozer
I'll tell ya about the Magic It'll free your soul but it's like trying to tell a stranger 'bout rock n roll
The only way to stop LeBron is Smith and Wesson, but even that's a double team.
by NC Magic Fan on Apr 24, 2010 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, really,
The Magic (and to a lesser extent Boston) was the only team that I DID NOT want to face in the playoffs. I was looking forward to and would have been satisfied playing anyone else, including the Cavs and the Celtics. But the Magic? No, I never had a good feeling about us playing them in a possible playoff series.
and yeah…
We knew going in that Orlando was our worst match-up in the Eastern Conference
We just didn’t know it was going to be this bad.
An outside view of your team
You need a center BADLY. And Thomas needs to be given a shot to start, he needs to develop with as much time as possible and you need a 6th man who can come in a score. If you get those things done you will be fine next year but you may need to cut some big contracts
Are you suggesting coconuts migrate?
Attacking others only attacks yourself
I agree on all counts and can possibly explain a bit about the Thomas situation for you.
At this point our cap situation is such that we can’t do much shopping. Next season if Tyson Chandler’s final year (player option) and most of us reckon that it’s our best option for trading him. That move alone will likely free up some breathing room, but it won’t help us at the moment.
We have 2 players that are finishing contacts this season that are high priority candidates to get resigned. The first is Raymond Felton and we can use the Bird exception to finagle at least something approaching a respectable offer. The Bobcats REALLY want to keep him. If he leaves to Free Agency, we have an immediate gaping hole at the one and no draft pick to fill it with. No team is going to go very far without a dependable anchor at point.
The second priority signing is Tyrus Thomas but none of us have managed to figure out a feasible way to keep him. This season the Bobcats front office has gone from being hapless to showing some real creativity when it comes to the roster. Larry Brown is also the NBA’s most notorious tinkerer. An effort will likely be made to keep Thomas, and the speculators here are cautiously optimistic.
Most of the team will be returning, this much we know. We’re also pretty certain that Larry Hughes is playing his last games in a Bobcats uniform.
Nobody is certain what will change in the off season, but we all know that there will be a least a few roster moves in which the details will have the fingers flying over the keyboards here at ROF before the summer is over.
by Ourdaywillcome on Apr 25, 2010 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions
A feasible way to keep Felton and Thomas - Would these scenarios work with NBA rules?
Chandler is due 12mil in his final year. Would he and the Bobcats be willing to renegotiate the contract and extend it. Maybe 5mil a year for 4 years. This frees up 7mil next year.
Another option is to package Nazr or Chandler with some value so another team who has cap space will bite. Would another team be willing to take on Nazr’s 6mil expiring contract along with a couple of 2nd round draft picks (or Hendo, Ajinca, Brown, or a protected 2016 first rounder). We’d probably take on a short duration 2mil contract in return? This would save 4mil. Would someone be willing and have enough cap space to take be able to Chandler’s expiring 12mil in the same manner? We’d have to take some bigger contracts back for this to work with Chandler. Maybe an expiring or a 2-year 6mil contract.
We’d have to give up a lot of value and take back some garbage to dump Diop’s longer term contract. Unless we are willing to part with Boris or JAX or DJ it is not likely.
If our options are limited, we could also explore a sign and trade with Felton or Thomas. We don’t want to let them go for nothing.
by Ft.Mill Bobcat on Apr 25, 2010 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting ideas.
Your first one is a beaut. It all depends on Chandler’s (and his agent’s) ego. He has $12.3 million coming next season. I think most people (and presumably Tyson) would look at that and see if he takes that deal he’ll make $7.7 total for three seasons following it. (5 million x 4 years = 20 million total) If he thinks he can finish up in Charlotte, pocket his 12.3 and sign with Charlotte or another team for more than that 7.7 million remaining dollars (or roughly $2.6 million per year for 3 years) he won’t bite on it. I’m assuming you were just pulling numbers to explain your deal, and I’m just plugging in mine based on your figures. My point is, we have to break up his contract with enough money in it that he’ll think it’s his better value to jump for it. He might be willing to do it for $7 million per for 4 years – a guaranteed $28. That still saves us over $5 million bucks to go shopping with (or give some to Thomas and shop with the rest) and the only downside is that we’ll be stuck with Chandler for an extra 3 seasons. Given that $7 million is a lot closer to his real market value than what he’s making now, the pill won’t be too bitter for fans to swallow. I LOVE your idea man! I wish there were a way to drop it in Jordan’t ear. I could sell that to Chandler real easy. “Tyson, this keeps you in a Charlotte uniform for most of your remaining career, gives you a solid salary, AND it gives us an opportunity to improve the team and really fight for a shot at a title ring for your finger to boot.” I’d start with your $5 million x 4 deal to give him and his agent a base number and then wait for his counter offer. (If he comes back asking for 6 so much the better!) It ROCKS man. Pure genius. Next season you and I have GOT to hook up at a game. Between the two of us we’ll solve all the teams problems before the cheesy halftime show!
As to the other things you presented, I think some combination of Chandler, Nazr, and Deej will be actively shopped around the league – especially if we keep RayRay in town. Larry Brown LOVES Felton and probably would barely notice if Augustin wasn’t around anymore. If StingRay DOES go the free agent route, we’re kinda stuck with Augustin and will probably even have to extend him until we get a draft pick or two. If DJ plays the way we know he can, he’s a bargain. But if he is as inconsistent next season as he was for the current one, he’ll kill us dead as a starter. Maybe we can get someone to wear a Diop mask, dummy up a highlight reel, and trick some other team into thinking he’s really the next Bill Russell instead of the next Bill Overdue!
by Ourdaywillcome on Apr 26, 2010 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Just learned renegotiation isn't allowed
Guess we will have to go with the package deal. We just have to find a team with cap space who is interested in our packaged assets.
by Ft.Mill Bobcat on Apr 26, 2010 8:16 AM EDT up reply actions
We truly have a lot of talent here
Probably enough to run the front office of the Bobcats…in case of a front office strike
;-)
by andrewlail76 on Apr 26, 2010 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions
contracts cannot be renegotiated in the nba
everything is locked in once it is signed – he will be making that much money next season regardless
No renegotiation = ruins the best option.
I wonder why the NBA won’t allow renegotiation?
It works quite well in the NFL.
Maybe the NBA can work it into the next collective bargaining agreement.
by Ft.Mill Bobcat on Apr 26, 2010 8:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Something's wrong here.
When I lived in Boston, Larry Bird voluntarily took a salary cut so the team could afford to bring in Dennis Johnson. For that matter, Nate “Tiny” Archibald took a cut so the team could offer Bird top dollar after Larry’s initial rookie contract ran out. You would think that since this is Chandler’s “player option” year, he’d be free to finagle and haggle any way he wants to.
Also, aren’t there stories every year of teams renegotiating extensions and deals with players to reward them and keep them in town instead of going Free Agent? I am always quick to admit that player contracts are my weakest area of knowledge when it comes to the NBA and it’s likely I’m dead wrong here. I’ve studied the actual NBA rulebook regarding contracts recently because I hate being ignorant about anything, but I spent most of my time trying to learn about exceptions and free agency regulations.
Have the rules regarding negotiation changed since the Larry Bird era? Well, apparently they have or you guys wouldn’t be saying it’s not allowed, so I guess I answered my own question. That really sucks y’all!
by Ourdaywillcome on Apr 26, 2010 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
You've got a good point about the "Option"
Since Chandler has an option, he can turn down the option in exchange for another contract. What can Tyson Chandler realistically expect to sign for after earning $12 million next season? He is injury prone and has limited offensive skills. Does $4 million sound about right? Maybe in exchange for not exercising his option, we offer him a 4 year contract at $24 million. This will cost us $6 million a season. However, it saves us $6 million next year which allows us to sign Felton and Thomas and avoid the luxury tax.
by Ft.Mill Bobcat on Apr 26, 2010 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
AND
Tyson is guaraunteed 24 million instead of 12. I really believe that scenario could be the best for BOTH parties.
Tyson becomes set for life.
The Bobcats have a serviceble, experienced center for a reasonable price inked to play with Jax & Wallace.
Like I said my friend...
It is one hell of a genius idea and the best solution for both the team AND for Tyson Chandler.
Unless his ego is off the charts huge he has to realize there isn’t a team on the planet that’s going to pay him anything close to what he’s making now. He’s peaked salary-wise. Even if he can’t admit it to himself, his agent should see it. I expect that when they start testing the waters and the offers all come back in the 1 to 2 year contract range at about $3 million per season reality will set in. I can’t see any team realistically offering him more than that given his history of injuries. Big men are always in demand, but they’re also required to either be 18 ppg scorers or defensive beasts. Although Chandler’s known as a defensive specialist, he’s hardly amongst the elite because of his tendency to get into foul trouble.
by Ourdaywillcome on Apr 26, 2010 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions

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