Long term planning or instant playoff gratification?

by Ourdaywillcome on Feb 19, 2010 2:56 PM EST

In the pregame thread David made his opinions pretty clear and in the response thread he also made the comment that fans that just want to make the playoffs read blogs too. I find it interesting that sides are drawn up by one opinion over the other. David takes the stance that a lot of sportswriters seem to adopt. He feels the team should take several years of preparation to ready themselves for a real championship season. To do this, we ride out our existing contracts, develop our rookies and, although he doesn't come right out and say it most do - set up our future role in the draft so we can make a real killing when the next deep draft appears on the horizon. My guess as to an example of this would be what the Bulls did several years ago that enabled them to get (if memory serves) 6 picks in the first round and create a young team with beastly potential.

The other side of the coin suggests a strategy of picking up solid veterans by trading our younger players and draft potential away. This basically turns us into perennial playoff regulars lacking the potential to ever bring home an NBA title. The team that always comes to my mind here is the Jazz. - always the bridesmaid, but never quite the bride. After the jump I'm going to comment on a couple of things that I've read lately that might add interesting slants on the discussion. But I've created this fan post so readers and bloggers at ROF can weigh in with individual opinions on what is the best direction for the Bobcats to follow:

Should we be planning for a season 3 or 4 years down the road where we can make an all-at-once push for Championsip glory? Or should we follow what appears to be the current path and forge on in to the playoffs hoping moderate talent, depth, and experience will put us into position where we might get a little lucky and make a deep drive or two into postseason activity?

Matt Taibbi is one of those columnists you either love or hate. He writes frequently about sports in several publications including Men's Journal. He also writes about Washington politics and policies as a sometime junior editor at Rolling Stone. He recently wrote an article about professional sports that not only fascinated me, but gave a lot to think about as a sports fan. In it, he said that there is no escaping the fact that in each pro league there is only 1 team per year that wins the top prize. For fans of every other team it's "wait until next year." His claim is that team owners are very aware of this and spend more energy keeping fans interested and spending money on franchises that are going nowhere fast than anything else. Teams like the Cubs and the Red Sox became masters at keeping the local fans by getting the fans to embrace legendary curses and myths to blame everything on. In these cases, the fans keep coming back just to see what quirky twist of fate will rob the team of glory THIS year. According to Taibbi, sports fans are losers -- plain and simple. They are masochists who take their punishment year after year and then open up their wallets and pay for the chance to suffer and lose for one more year. It was no fun to read that, but unfortunately, he makes one hell of a point. In the NBA there will be 1 winning city. All 29 others will walk away empty handed and fans will buy the season recap DVDs to try and find solace in what limited successes the team managed before it was over. "Hey, we won 3 more than last year!" or "If only things had gone different in game 5 we MIGHT have gone all the way" become the spoonful of sugar that helps the nasty medicine go down. Just a few short months later we start all over again with a clean slate and great expectations. Ouch.

The other thing of note is directly related to the NBA. Only 17 of the 30 teams in the NBA have ever won the championship. Almost half of the league has never gotten to wear the crown. That's a worse ratio than any of the other major league sports. Taking Matt Taibbi's comments along with this fact, it means we addicted fans of pro basketball are the biggest suckers of all.

So what "fix" do you prefer? The Arnott method which leaves us on cruise control for a couple of years while we plot a course for a big and sudden roll of the dice? Or the Jazz plan that will take the Bobcats repeatedly into the playoffs but be verly unlikely to give us the whole enchilada any time soon?

I'll make this beastly post just a bit longer by weighing in with my personal opinion. If we manage to become regular visitors to the playoffsI believe there's a good chance we'll be there to take advantage when one of the "better" contenders gets hit with an injury or some other problem that leave the door open a crack. If we plot for one big surge there are any number of things that can happen to screw things up and management has to be meticulous in planning it out. I don't know if I trust the current "brain trust" in Charlotte to pull that little maneuver off.

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Comments

I Don't See Why People

are saying the Bobcats are sacrificing their future with this. Look at how young our roster is. Captain Jack and Diaw are the elderman, and their young as well. Felton, Wallace, Chandler, Diop, Henderson, Brown, Graham, Thomas, Augustin, all have room too grow. And most are locked under contract. If we are this good now, imagine 2 years down the road together.

by Charlotte Bobcat on Feb 19, 2010 3:14 PM EST reply actions

Because they're trading three-plus years of a #1 pick's contributions for what could only be three months of Tyrus Thomas.

Also, that you listed DeSagana Diop and Stephen Graham—players who are on the very fringe on the NBA—as part of our future says loud and clear what kind of future we can expect.

Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.

by MichaelProcton on Feb 19, 2010 3:27 PM EST up reply actions

The only way Thomas becomes

a three month rental is if the Bobcats decide not to match whatever offer another team makes him, if they decide to make an offer at all. Thomas’ destiny is in the Bobcats’ hands for at least the next year and a half. I don’t know why you find draft picks so important. I can’t remember the last time a franchise got a can’t miss prospect outside of the lottery. With the Bobcats playing as well as they have, they’ll finish with the 16th pick at the very worst. Trust me, if they want it back, they will have opportunities to get it through other trades. You may as well plug in those holes you get with trading picks with proven veterans who are sure to be on the market on a yearly basis. Diop isn’t on the fringe of the NBA. His biggest knock is his contract. He performed very well for a playoff Dallas team. And Graham is in the NBA because he plays with heart and plays multiple positions, the keys to playing Larry ball. It’s the same with Derek Brown. I never said they were the cornerstones of the franchise, but going back history, they probably haven’t played their best ball yet.

by Charlotte Bobcat on Feb 19, 2010 5:38 PM EST up reply actions

Just because we suck at 1st round picks...

Doesn’t mean we should trade them away

by andrewlail76 on Feb 19, 2010 5:43 PM EST up reply actions

Like I said,

if we ever wanted them back, they would be very easy to get. Unless it’s a lottery pick, which you only get if you finish outside of the playoffs. The better the Bobcats do with Thomas, the less valuable their pick becomes. If we want the 18th pick in 2011, I’m sure around that time, we’ll be able to trade for it back.

by Charlotte Bobcat on Feb 19, 2010 5:48 PM EST up reply actions

+1

all these traded first round picks are protected anyway.

by Ft.Mill Bobcat on Feb 20, 2010 11:31 AM EST up reply actions

Except there's no protection at all on the pick to the Nuggets next year anymore.

Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.

by MichaelProcton on Feb 21, 2010 4:49 PM EST up reply actions

I think a solid foundation is the key to consistent success.

But, as David has often alluded to, we can’t even manage to settle on a consistent strategy to building the team, much less properly execute it. If your team is a perpetual playoff contender, the odds are much higher that you can at some point turn a playoff appearance into something greater. Further, you can parlay that consistent success into bigger crowds (both in the arena and on TV), which leads to more revenue and an improvement in your attractiveness as a destination for free agents—not necessarily All-Star guys, but the Shane Battier, Carl Landry, Trevor Ariza glue-guy types who truly make championship teams. However, I don’t know that the Bobcats’ current strategy is setting us up to get to this type of situation. Even if we can make the playoffs the next two years as low seeds in the pitiful Eastern conference, I don’t know that that makes us any more attractive when some of our bad contracts expire next year, and we’ll be forced to overspend on mediocre players (i.e. the sort of contracts we’ve been trading for) just to keep competing at the fringes of the playoff picture. By trading draft picks and young players, we’re giving up on a chance for future growth. For the marginal growth we can net that barely puts us in the playoffs as a member of a really bad conference, is that worth it?

Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.

by MichaelProcton on Feb 19, 2010 4:45 PM EST reply actions

So for the next 3 years

We play Larry ball, which means we acquire players that are multi-positional( jack of all positions, master of none), and the end, we still need some “quality players”

by andrewlail76 on Feb 19, 2010 5:45 PM EST up reply actions

Actually I mis stated it

I count last year, this year and next year..that’s my 3 years

by andrewlail76 on Feb 19, 2010 5:46 PM EST up reply actions

Yes,

by trading away a mid first rounder, we’re giving up on our entire future. I’d rather have a proven veteran than an untested middle of the pack rookie any day. You can find steals like Lawson and Blair in the draft around those picks, but that’s due to bad drafting. Once you’re out the top 10, there are no talents on the board that teams are craving over, otherwise, they would have been drafted. Teams take sorry deals like two 2nd rounders for a 16th pick in the draft. Or I guess we should hold on to those two. Who’s to say what the team’s limits are with this lineup they have now. I like how you are so convinced that Charlotte stands absolutely no chance against Orlando, Boston, Cleveland, or Atlanta.

by Charlotte Bobcat on Feb 19, 2010 5:45 PM EST up reply actions

How the hell is Tyrus Thomas proven?

The only thing he’s proven is that he’ll fight with every coach he ever has.

Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.

by MichaelProcton on Feb 19, 2010 11:49 PM EST up reply actions

He's obviously

proven himself to Larry, Mike, and Rod for them to give up Flip, 5 mill in expiring contracts, and a first round pick for a restricted free agent. I think those men know what they’re doing.

by Charlotte Bobcat on Feb 20, 2010 1:47 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah.

That’s why they picked up that stud Tyson Chandler (who’s played exactly three games since Christmas) for perinneal double-double guy Emeka Okafor.

Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.

by MichaelProcton on Feb 21, 2010 4:49 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, I think you mentioned that

We get your point…thanks for bringing it up again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again….

by andrewlail76 on Feb 21, 2010 7:48 PM EST up reply actions

Sorry...

It’s just that I’ve noticed the significant difference between the two players about 54 different times since this summer.

Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.

by MichaelProcton on Feb 22, 2010 1:35 AM EST up reply actions

So true

by andrewlail76 on Feb 23, 2010 12:47 PM EST up reply actions

T-Time

proved himself last night against the Cavs

by Ft.Mill Bobcat on Feb 20, 2010 11:32 AM EST up reply actions

+1

the energy he brings to the team is amazing. He’s just out there jumping around everywhere. I hope we can avoid injuries, because his impact is makes the whole team play better. Especially Boris, who we desperately need to step up. Did you notice how comfortable Diaw seemed last night? I mean, and don’t forget, we were playing the best team in the NBA record wise. I doubt Procton is/was familiar what Thomas brings to a team.

by Charlotte Bobcat on Feb 20, 2010 7:46 PM EST up reply actions

Sure, we were playing the team that had compiled a good record...

But the team we played on Friday was not even related to that team. Jamison’s presence obviously effected the whole team’s performance. How often is a major rotational player on a team going to go 0-12 and get blocked five times? (And yes, I know Tyson’s come close, but he hasn’t quite even gotten there yet.)

Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.

by MichaelProcton on Feb 21, 2010 4:51 PM EST up reply actions

Yes, there's nothing like a single game to "prove" a player's worth.

Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.

by MichaelProcton on Feb 21, 2010 4:50 PM EST up reply actions

T-Time

proved himself a second time against the Bucks

by Ft.Mill Bobcat on Feb 21, 2010 7:57 PM EST up reply actions

Actually, yeah.

Two games will do it. Thanks for making the admission I planned to without even having the chance.

Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.

by MichaelProcton on Feb 22, 2010 1:33 AM EST up reply actions

The sports landscape of NC has the attention of an eight year old.

Couple this with an overall feeling of distain and mistrust in professional basketball and you have a mileu not condusive to the short term success of the Bobcats.

While I agree that the long term goals of this team like building towards a championship should be of the utmost importance to the front office, they also need to sell this team to the people of Charlotte. Simply put, poor drafting and roster management have created an environment where the already low attendence figures would be in worse shape had the team not made immediate moves to get short term wins.

We currently don’t have a team built for long term success due to salary cap sacrifices as outlined by David (Diop, Diaw etc.) but I don’t really think the team had any other option.

The readers of this blog are hardcore NBA fans, and will remain resolute while the team rebuilds and finds its ground, however we make up the vast minority of the populace needed to be successful. Just like an independent band may be willing to sell out their artistic vision to become mainstream, so the Bobcats needed to ‘sell out’ a litter to pander to the masses. Over time they can rebuild, but unfortunately the NBA is a business furst and the team needed to put asses in seats. The recent moves of the team put the derierres in the cable box.

Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.

by James Dator on Feb 19, 2010 4:59 PM EST reply actions

OKay, I'm officially confused.

I admit it isn’t that difficult to do under the best of circumstances, but I’m really befuddled now.

In 1 year we unload our ugliest contracts. We free many millions of dollars and lose a major chunk of our baggage players. I’m reading the comments and opinions and unless I’m badly mistaken, many of you have the consensus we are mortgaging our future by trading our draft picks away.

Now.. THIS season there are over a dozen teams (as witnessed by the frenzy as the trade deadline arrived) that are looking to unload contracts and free money for free agency. Almost everything I’ve read comments on the wisdom of this strategy for a number of reasons.Why exactly that when the Cats are set up to employ the exact same wise strategy a year from now they are suddenly mortgaging our future and dooming themselves to being a minor playoff presence? Will there be no quality players available in free agency?Also, rookies come in for 3 years. After that they have to be resigned or let go. This means there will be a lot of players that have been trained and tested in the NBA for 3 years and are about to hit the prime years of their ball careers. Why is it suddenly a bad idea to pick up a player or two that is already establishing a presence in the league instead of rolling the dice on drafting? Isn’t the draft only a half-dozen quality players deep AT BEST most years? Should the Cats be trying to deliberately suck their way into a top-5 pick instead of taking advantage of $15 million plus in available money and using it to acquire solid players through the free agent route?Finally, the upcoming CBA negotiations not only look like both sides will be playing hardball, but it’s virtually a lock that the entire trade/cap/draft/free agent composition of the league is going to change in radical ways. The results of that battle can’t possibly be determined at this point.The way I see it, the Bobcats front office is doing the only thing it can… they are keeping options open in anticipation of being able to seize advantage of the CBA regardless of how it gets hammered out. They are assembling a solid team that is only 1 more season away from moving in any one of a number of directions. We have just brought in an historically problem player. If he fits the mix we keep him for at least another year and then have the money to sign him for longer should we choose. If he shows up with a big old attitude, we only have him for 3 months and then we’re free of him with our net loss being the broken logjam of players in the back court. Law and Murray weren’t going to bring us a single series closer to an NBA championship. Thomas just might. Should the team be sold, as expected, the new owners can shift the team around to suit their plans and if MJ DOES end up controlling the team he can work on finishing the journey he has decided to begin with the acquisition of Jackson and Thomas.

by Ourdaywillcome on Feb 19, 2010 7:13 PM EST reply actions

Simple question

What is the allure of Charlotte to a Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James, Dwayne Wade or Chris Bosh?

The city itself is not a selling point, which in and of itself is a problem in luring superstar free agents. If the Charlotte can offer a max level contract, and say, New York can offer a max level contract which is the more desirable location? Gambling one’s future is a great way to get short term success (see Boston) but the Celtics are about to go through a mammoth drought when the big three are gone and they’re left with little more than Glen Davis, Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins.

The Cavaliers, Mavericks etc. are scrambling to make moves because their window is closing. Cleveland are toast if Lebron leaves, the Mavs are in trouble when Kidd retires and Nowitski isn’t getting any younger.

In 2-3 years it will be teams like Oklahoma City and Portland who are contending for the championship because they have built their teams from the ground up securing lots of young talent, drafting well and taking advantage of teams looking to make the quick move by gambling their future draft picks.

The Bobcats are playing with fire because unlike Cleveland or Dallas realistically we don’t have a shot of contending for the conference championship, yet we are making moves like we are one of the top players in the East. The Bobcats window is just opening… could it be opened wider immediately? Absolutely… but that also means it will slam shut just as soon. Drafting new players and slowly building a roster is the method to keep that window propped up for years.

We have made some smart and prudent moves over the years (Raja and Boris for J-Rich), but others that are utterly baffling (Diop). I truly hope the Bobcats tested the waters with Tyrus Thomas’ camp as to his interest in resigning before they dangled the 1st rounder to the Bulls.

The Bobcats can’t hang with the big spenders and go millions into luxury due to the market size, so they need to spend wisely. The best way to do that is draft smart. Despite all this, however, I’ll enjoy the ride for however long it lasts even though I may be biting my fingers when it’s all said and done.

Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.

by James Dator on Feb 19, 2010 8:45 PM EST up reply actions

For any number of reasons.

This team has no attraction to marquee free agents whatsoever. No history, awful fanbase, absentee owner, weak endorsement opportunities, I could go on and on.

Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.

by MichaelProcton on Feb 19, 2010 11:54 PM EST up reply actions

But we do have MJ and LB

and this is attractive to some free agents

by Ft.Mill Bobcat on Feb 20, 2010 11:36 AM EST up reply actions

You bet.

Players have to be falling over themselves to play the next year for a 70+ Larry Brown. And with Jordan’s impressive track record, who wouldn’t want him to run their team?

Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.

by MichaelProcton on Feb 21, 2010 4:52 PM EST up reply actions

Thats a long post

remember Aussie said some of us have attention spans of 8 year olds.

by Ft.Mill Bobcat on Feb 20, 2010 11:35 AM EST up reply actions

LOL

I didn’t mean us… I was referring to ‘Joe NC Sportsfan’. Simply put, college basketball dominates the sports landscape in NC and the pro teams get an influx of bandwagon fans when the team is playing well.

Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.

by James Dator on Feb 20, 2010 2:51 PM EST up reply actions

Must be why Bank of America has been sold out for years.

Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.

by MichaelProcton on Feb 21, 2010 4:56 PM EST up reply actions

What can I say

I’m a writer. My posts tend to be on the longish side rather than just a sentence fragment. I’m used to writing magazine articles and online opinion and analysis pieces. There are people that don’t like it and don’t read my stuff. There are people that enjoy it because it’s like reading a newspaper article and they feel the content is worth it. It’s your call whether it’s worth it to you or not. I won’t take offense if it’s not your thing. For me this is fun. If you get enjoyment from it so much the better.

by Ourdaywillcome on Feb 20, 2010 8:41 PM EST up reply actions

the bobcats honestly don't know what direction to go in anyway

--Gerald Wallace is the best player the Bobcats will have..... EVER
--Someone should slap Larry Brown and bring him back to reality..

by raysfan81 on Feb 20, 2010 4:57 PM EST reply actions

Fair enough.

Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.

by MichaelProcton on Feb 21, 2010 4:52 PM EST up reply actions

Hopefully that will change once the team is sold

Just hope they’re not too hamstrung by short-sighted moves made now. I’m not necessarily talking about the Thomas trade, but I might be. Initially I was skeptical because this move seems like another risk made at the cost of a future asset. Some people have pointed out that the Bobcats have a poor draft history, but that doesn’t make future draft picks any less valuable. IMO if the Cats don’t draft better in the future, then that future looks pretty bleak as their core players age.

But for now this trade has to be given an incomplete. If Thomas stays out of the doghouse and remainins a productive rotation player, and the Bobcats re-sign him, then this was a good trade. Thomas certainly has the size and athleticism to be the Bobcats future at PF, but he’s also been one of the most maddeningly inconsistent teases of a player throughout his career.

by ClipCat on Feb 22, 2010 2:38 PM EST up reply actions

I certainly agree with this analysis.

I think the trade could work out great. However, given how much rampant, often unsubstantiated optimism there is around here, it’s important to point out some times that there might just be some potential downside to the moves this front office makes. Ya’ll remember when they called Okafor for Chandler a great basketball move, right?

Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.

by MichaelProcton on Feb 23, 2010 2:25 AM EST up reply actions