BDL Mock Draft; Adios, Sean May; Jay Bilas Chooses Williams Over Henderson
by David A. Arnott on Jun 23, 2009 1:51 PM EDT
28 comments
I have three Bobcats links for your reading pleasure, today. First, here's the short writeup I did for the Ball Don't Lie mock draft.
The logical pick that won't elicit a refrain of 'MJ being MJ' is Gerald Henderson. The Dukie would be slated to step in as the backup off-guard behind Raja Bell this season, and then take over as DJ Augustin's backcourt mate next.
Then there's the news that Sean May won't get a qualifying offer. If you want to give up on May, I'd be fine with that, but I'd much rather keep him than keep Felton. Seriously, dude has real talent that Felton's never shown. He'll get more than the minimum to be some other team's role player and work on staying healthy.
And, finally, there's this nugget from Jay Bilas quoted below, both via Rick Bonnell.
I respect that Jay Bilas isn't one of those "Be true to your school'' zealots. So I wasn't surprised Monday when he said he'd pick Louisville's Terrence Williams over Duke's Gerald Henderson.
Mad props to Bonnell for referring to the college uber alles crowd as zealots. I like, I like. I also appreciate that Bonnell has passed on a bit of logic from Bilas with which I disagree. Here's why:
As hinted at in the BDL paragraphs, I tend to defer to the consensus holding that Gerald Henderson might be the Best Player Available in addition to being the best player to Fill A Need. He's not the BPA because he has the "highest ceiling", but because he's better than Terrence Williams, Chase Budinger, and all the non-SGs right now. Consensus, again, is that he will contribute more to his NBA team in his rookie season than those guys, especially on defense, which is his strength.
That said, there are still plenty of people who insist they can tell if Player A will be better in the future than Player B will be, even though Player B is better right now. I refuse to believe anyone's ability to do that in basketball, where the highest amateur level is one and a half steps down from the highest pro level. Without any studies or data to back up either side of the issue, why does it make sense that a talking head can tell which player will be better in four years with any accuracy? Doesn't it make sense that it'd be easier to determine who's better now and then hope that holds over time?
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Sean May sucks.....
He has shown no sign of wanting to get back on the court since his first injury!! He actually looks like hes gotten fatter and he could not even make it up and down the court before being out of breathe…. Furthmore he doesnt look like he has the desire to help his self out by getting into shape so he can be what you call a “role player”. In my eyes Felton has done more for the bobcats that sean may will ever do for any team… EVER!!! Atleast felton wants to work and improve his game which he has every since he was drafted and I believe that is because every year the bobcats have gotten a little better. To rather have May than Felton is just plain ridiculous!!!
I watched the last couple of games. I didn’t think he looked anywhere near as fat as he once was. He did look to be playing ultra careful. I don’t think he had much faith in his knee.
I have to say…depression is a bad thing, and he has had to deal with it. He should offer to sign on for league minimum as a free agent on July 1st if he is sincere in wanting to return to “finish” the job he came to do.
And then “DO” the job
by andrewlail76 on Jun 24, 2009 7:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I’ve decided that I also want Terrance Williams over Henderson.
Of course I’d prefer Budinger over both of them but he’s not going before the 20th pick.
Case of the beet bandit. Missing beets from all over the farm, no footprints. Inside job. Mose in socks. Boom. Case closed. -Dwight Schrute
I’m for Williams also…
I like a player who can play multiple positions.
by andrewlail76 on Jun 24, 2009 7:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Defending multiple positions is just as important...
And Henderson could certainly match up against a scoring point if he was in the game with, say, Augustin.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jun 24, 2009 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions
The "real talent" comment is a bit harsh...
Felton has certainly showed above-average NBA abilities, just not on a consistent basis (but probably more consistently than May.)
Also, it’s hard to say Henderson doesn’t have any upside in his game. He got better every year in college, he had a hard time getting healthy early in his career, and his jump shot is still (and will continue to be) developing.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
I’d argue that when May was healthy and played, he showed valuable talent and skills. Keeping him healthy may be too much of a challenge for any team, but at this stage working to keep May healthy and on the floor so he can produce like Charlie Villanueva is a better bet than hoping that Raymond Felton becomes better than the 22nd or 23rd best PG in the league, for roughly 2 mil more than it would cost to offer May a QO.
With our cap situation, we probably wouldn’t be able to afford either in free agency, and it’d be wasteful to keep both with a QO, so keeping only one was the prudent move. I happen to think they chose the guy with less capacity to help the team.
by David A. Arnott on Jun 23, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I mean, at some point, he's got to step up and do the work himself.
I’m sure they’ve offered trainers and nutritionists and the like. I think Felton does help us (even as a backup) more in the 70+ games he’s likely to play than the 45 or less May is likely to give us.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jun 23, 2009 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
haha
45 games in season… I dont think may has played 45 games in his whole 5 year career
Sadly, yes. I was being optimistic for the sake of his argument
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jun 23, 2009 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions
May and Villanueva
While I’ll agree that they seemed to have comparable talent when they enterred the league, that’s where the comparison ends. Villanueva has developed and produced far beyond May’s meager showing. Villanueva logged more playing time last season than May has in his whole career.
While May once teased us with his talent, it’s been 2 1/2 seasons since he’s been a regular part of the rotation. I see no reason to pay him as if he is magically ready to start contributing now. Someone may sign him for more than the minimum, but I’d be shocked if he gets anything close to the QO.
As for Felton, assuming that he is the 22nd or 23rd best PG in the league, he is “worth” the QO based on the earnings of his peers. I think he’s far more likely to sign elsewhere than to accept the QO, especially if he’s told that Augustine is likely to supplant him as the starting PG. He could have value in a sign-and-trade, while it’s hard to imagine anyone trading for May. At worst, the Bobcats have two competent PG’s for one more season while they evaluate them to determine whether either is the long term solution as the starter. The Bobcats don’t lose cap room because they really don’t have any this offseason anyway.
But there's danger in trying to get a deal from somebody just to get out of town...
If it’s not a great offer, the Bobcats could easily match it, and he’s stuck.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jun 23, 2009 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions
That's the danger of being an RFA
I’m not especially concerned with what Felton wants, but there’s no indication he doesn’t want to return to Charlotte. I doubt that the risk of the Bobcats matching would stop him from signing an offer sheet elsewhere. Ending up as the 3rd guard on the Bobcats wouldn’t be so bad for him, and he could easily end up in the same position on another team, too.
I'm sorry David..
…but that is blatantly stupid. I know that’s harsh but there isn’t any other way to put it.
1) Sean May sucks. The moment i heard that they drafted him i knew what a stupid pick that was. He blew up in the NCAA tourney during the heels title run and outside of that he has never shown me any “valuable talent and skills.” He is not worth anything to the Bobcats – thats why they made the totally correct decision to pass on making him a QO.
2) Name the 23 point guards better than Raymond Felton including their salaries. I’m sure that i would find many of your “better” PG’s i would disagree with. And of the ones that i wouldn’t disagree with lets look at their salaries compared to Felton.
You might not think that Felton is worth 5.5 million and he might not be. But he is definitely much closer to being worth that than Sean May is being worth any millions.
Good thing you don’t run the team.
Health is a skill, and May hasn’t been skillful in that regard, so to speak. That said:
Villanueva’s career snapshot:
7269 minutes, 18.2 pts/36, 8.6 reb/36
May’s career snapshot:
1537 minutes, 16.3 pts/36, 9.6 reb/36
Obviously, you want Villanueva instead of May because Charlie is a better bet to play the whole season, but just on talent/skills/production when on the floor, May is comparable. Note that their career stats also include Villanueva’s breakout last season, and May’s crap time while recovering from injury.
You’re right that we’ll argue over “better PGs” for a long time, but I’ll just tell you that from looking at the Rotoworld depth charts. I count exactly 23 guys who are better PGs than Felton. The more pertinent point, though, is that Augustin is better and will be better and will be cheaper. Our backup PG shouldn’t be making MLE money.
by David A. Arnott on Jun 24, 2009 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions
I refuse to believe that Wiliams is better than Henderson right now or down the road...
If anything Henderson was much more consistent and a better isolation player this last season than Williams, who consquentally is older and seemingly less polished. I just don’t buy it. Williams has awesome size and athleticism, but I didn’t see anything he did at Louisville that overly impressed me. And at the end of the day isn’t it just about playing the game?
I wouldnt mind keeping May
But I believe the Bobcats did the right thing in refusing to offer him a qualifying offer. As of right now, Sean May is not worth $3.6 million. I would have a hard time believing that any team out there would pay him anything close to that. I do believe he’s worth keeping on the team simply due to what he can bring if healthy and in shape, but the guy has had 3 seasons to try and figure it out, and he hasnt proven he can do it. If the Cats can retain him for an offer much less, lets say a third of the price at $1.2 million, then by all means lets keep working with him and hope he regains forum. At that price its not much different than bringing in a Vetern or a D-leaguer to contribute from the end of the bench.
Figure it out=get in shape?
And $1.2 mil could be nearly as much as three times what we’d have to pay somebody else depending on experience.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jun 23, 2009 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
No one said its a sure thing
The 1.2 mill figure is simply hypothetical. If you’d like then I could say that we should sign him for $880K, roughly the league minimum for a fourth year player. Any cheaper and you have to look for some undrafted D-Leaguers, which isnt a bad option in itself, but doesnt mean the cats will gain anything but a few thousand dollars. It really doesnt matter…the point is sign him for a hell of a lot cheaper than his qualifying offer and see if he can get his game together. When I said “figure it out”, essentially, yes, I meant get in shape. But it also applies to the fact that he needed 3 surgeries to fix his knee, needs to learn to eat correctly and needs to learn to work out correctly to maximize the effectiveness of his workouts and lose weight/gain strength faster. It looked like he started to get the picture last year…I dont know if it took him so long due to a lack of effort, lack of desire, lack of knowledge…i dont know…but yeah, lets see if he can figure it out
I'm certain he's had nutritionists, trainers, and PT people telling him those things for the past three+ years...
He’s still got to choose to listen and apply what any professional athlete should know about taking care of their tool—their body.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jun 23, 2009 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Hypothetical: Would you take the 16 and the 26 for the 12?
I’d do this in a heart beat and snap up Patty Mills at the 26. At the 16 Williams and Henderson might still be available or Earl Clark could also be there.
Listening to Simmons podcast and he has Chad Ford on. Little bit of Bobcat talk mostly centering on the prospects of Iverson and Williams on the same team.
Case of the beet bandit. Missing beets from all over the farm, no footprints. Inside job. Mose in socks. Boom. Case closed. -Dwight Schrute
Depends who is available at #12
If the Bobcats decide Henderson is their guy at #12, then they should hold onto the pick unless someone better drops. But if he’s gone, and there aren’t any especially appealing choices available, the trade could be worth it. The #26 pick just isn’t worth much this season. Mills may turn into a decent player, but Augustine’s backup should be bigger. In a scenario with two 1st rounders, I’d prefer using the #26 on someone the Cats could leave overseas for a season, maybe Nick Calathes.
But don't you think that's a bad PR move?
It would be the second first-round pick in two years to provide no visible contribution to the team whatsoever.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jun 23, 2009 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Probably could be seen that way
I’m only in favor of trading the pick in the very unlikely event that the Bobcats miss out on all the top SG’s, Hill, Blair and Clark. That scenario is almost impossible, but if it did happen they might well get the same guy at 16 that they would have gotten at 12 since the top players available would all be PG’s. At 26, they wouldn’t be picking a player likely to play much next season anyway so they might as well pick someone that could join the team in two years after they’ve given up their 1st rounder to settle that silly Ajinca trade.
But it was supposed to be...
that silly Ajinca Hibbert trade.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jun 24, 2009 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions
wow...
Sean May has always been undersized to play PF whether he is healthy or not. Just so happens he sucks. I hated that pick and still do. (sorry Sean, loved you when you were a member of my beloved Heels!)
Williams took it to the opposition with authority in college more often than Henderson. Like Williams upside, but Henderson is probably better suited to play for Coach Brown.
You're kidding, right?
Did you ever watch Duke play a game? Henderson had highlight blocks and dunks every game.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jun 24, 2009 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions
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