Preview of Warriors Game - And How The Bobcats' Trades Could Turn Into a Nightmare

by David A. Arnott on Feb 27, 2009 1:18 AM EST

The Bobcats face the Warriors at 10:30 tonight, so it's as appropriate a time as any to go into some detail about why the Cats' roster construction is taking us down a path that ultimately leads to heartbreak. Consider the following premise:

...championships are won by star players supported by solid teammates; they're not won by overwhelming depth in spite of a lack of peak performers.

This decade's Pistons buck the trend. Every other championship team in the NBA's modern era has been led by at least one superstar. Ideally, Charlotte would be championship contenders year in and year out, but short of that, I think the goal is to have sustained success year in and year out, with real title shots here and there. In other words, if we can't be like the Spurs, it'd be fantastic to be like the Mavs or Suns.

Below that threshold, there isn't much difference between teams, as far as how much hope for a championship they have. Selling out everything for the next four years in order to lock up the six seed is utterly ridiculous. Six seeds don't win titles. The Rockets won in '95 as a six seed, but they were the defending champions, and Olajuwon had missed ten games and Drexler only arrived halfway through the season. The Spurs won in '07 as a four seed, after the top-seeded Mavs were knocked out by the Warriors, and with a little help from the league office, who felt they had to suspend Suns players for taking steps off their bench. That's as low in the seeding as modern champions go.

What I dread happening to the Bobcats is what we see happening to the Warriors now. If we make the playoffs, it'll be fun, no doubt about it. It'll be exciting to have a revved up atmosphere, a full house, and national television exposure. Maybe the Bobcats will win a home playoff game, and we can all have a group hug on Trade and Davidson.

The thing is, there's a sort of fatalism that comes with selling out the future for a shot at the playoffs without putting thought and care into growing sustained success. The Warriors are nearly a zero threat to compete for a title for the foreseeable future. They'll be a pesky opponent, a true challenge for at least half the league, but the primary hope their fan base holds is for Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins to develop into All Star caliber players. If either fails to get better and help elevate the team into the Western Conference title picture, they're stuck until at least the 2012 offseason, because Maggette and Stephen Jackson will be untradeable, they won't get equal value for Ellis or Biedrins, and if the cap shrinks, they'll be hard-pressed to find cheap free agent additions to the roster.

They made the playoffs. It was a glorious run. Everyone was on board the Warriors bandwagon. And then they lost to a superior Jazz team. They missed the playoffs last year. They decided to let Baron walk. Without Ellis, lost to injury, they were utterly terrible. With Ellis, they've bounced back, but they're still probably just a playoffs bubble team.

Is making the playoffs just once so important to you, as a fan, that you'd trade virtually all hope of winning a title until at least 2013 for one playoff series this year? Of course you wouldn't take that awful trade. As a fan, you want to know that your team is progressing toward a title, even if they're awful at the moment. Given a choice, you would be much much much happier about your team if you were following the New Jersey Nets, because even though the records are similar, and neither team is a championship contender, the Nets have multiple promising young guys and a star point guard in Devin Harris.

I'm not a fan of the current direction because the Bobcats have locked themselves out of the title conversation for several years, at least, by taking on so many poorly-conceived contracts. Acquiring new, better, players will be that much more difficult because of those deals we took on. The Warriors have their foot jammed in the door, forcing it to stay open, hoping for a savior, but it looks like they're locked out of the title hunt, too, until their salary situation changes dramatically.

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We know the game will be uptempo and generally a run and gun affair. Golden State won't have Jamal Crawford or Monta Ellis, so look for CJ Watson, Anthony Morrow, and Marco Belinelli to get plenty of burn. There's a chance the Warriors will also be without Corey Maggette or Ronny Turiaf. They can do without Maggette, because they're loaded with swingmen and can play with three or four guards, thanks to Stephen Jackson's versatility. Turiaf, on the other hand, is a valuable backup to Biedrins. If he's out, we're looking at Anthony Randolph, Rob Kurz(!), or Brandan Wright in the middle for stretches. Good times.

I love Bright Side of the Sun's notion about basketball and frequencies, which will absolutely apply to this game:

Every team, like every contraption, has [a resonant and natural frequency]. In the case of a crappy car, the car vibrates ridiculously at 30 mph, at 40 mph, at 50 and so on. However, at 80 mph, the car inexplicably stops rattling like the death trap it is and starts humming like a Lotus. Run the same car at 90 and you are back to rattling so hard you think the bolts are going to shoot off. If you change the parts, you end up with a different natural frequency. In the same way, teams have their own natural frequency, or a natural speed at which they play their best.

The Bobcats seem to play best at a little below league average pace. They grind on many of their good possessions, but when their defense is humming, they can streak down the court with DJ, Raymond, and Gerald. The thing is, to carry the car analogy further, when the Warriors hit triple digits on the dash, the Cats will have to take care that they don't try to keep up, necessarily, and instead hit the brakes and take it easy, trying to impose their natural frequency upon the game.

That would not be a natural act. For various reasons, the faster pace seems extremely enticing to opponents, and the Bobcats would be wise to resist it and attempt to keep the game within their comfort zone instead of gunning the motor and trying to keep up with the Warriors. Like I said, it'd look and feel outright weird to see the Warriors' controlled fury rolling down the floor, followed by a methodical, probing style on every alternating possession, because teams tend to find a game rhythm and stick to it on both sides of the ball.

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Agree about the 6th seed

that is what this team is currently built for. To be tough, pesky, deep, and just good enough to make a little bit of noise, but not to go overly far. But I think you’re getting ahead of the game here. Let’s face it…there was no single trade or single player the cats could aquire that would make the biggest difference or get them into title competition. The team needed a change in direction and I think they’ve made changes to lead them in the right direction under brown. Its going to be a slow progression. As fans, we first need to see the team take strides towards improvement. We saw that in the first 3 seasons with what appeared to be productive draft picks and improving records. But after the past 1.5 – 2 seasons, we’ve seen the cats become stagnant/take steps backwards. Their record got worse last year. May and Morrison furthered their arguement for biggest draft busts ever. We traded Herman for Nazi. We hit a ceiling with what we had…it was time to blow some things up and make some changes. The team appears a lot more solid now, even if they turn out to be nothing more than a 6th seed. But it will be a huge improvement to become a 6th seed. It will be a huge improvement to make the playoffs. The important part will be to build upon that success. By the time we hit the playoffs (next year?), we’ll have some attractive trade pieces. Nazi will be an expiring contract, same with Radman. May will either be gone or will have a substantial pay cut. Bell will be an expiring contract….we’ll be in position to make moves to make us better. GState took huge steps backwards primarily due to a new management member who is a righthand man of the owner overriding Chris Mullin’s decisions. His name is Robert Rowell. He made the decision to let Baron (the heart and sole of the team) walk, he made the decision to tie up money in Maggette and Jackson, and we all know how stupid Monta was in the infamous Mopedgate 08. GState built their team, made the playoffs once, damn near made it the next year (they just missed it with 48 wins…I think we’d all love to see the cats have 48 wins), and then management tore everything apart when they had the opportunity to keep what they had and try to make small changes to improve it. This is where the Bobcats will need to be different. We’re on our way to making a little bit of noise in the league, we actually have playoff potential. The true test will be to see if we can get there and then to build upon that success. If we do that, we’ll have more opportunity to draw a bigger name, and we’ll have a better chance of being successful if we actually do turn our expiring contracts and available players into a big name trade in the future. Great players will be available in the future, but obtaining one wont matter too much if we dont have solid teammates to back him up. See Kobe, 2004-2005 season. Are the Bobcats title contenders now or in the near future. No. Can they be within 2-4 years? Yes, I think so. And thats enough for me to keep believing

by rtgunn on Feb 27, 2009 1:59 AM EST reply actions

We hit a ceiling with what we had…it was time to blow some things up and make some changes.

I wholeheartedly concur. The issue I have is that we didn’t actually blow things up and start over. Looking ahead, we won’t have an opportunity to build upon this success for several reasons:

1 — If we trade Emeka or Gerald individually, we won’t get equal value, even in volume, because they’re both paid about what they should be paid based on their production. If we try to trade Boris, I think we’ll be rebuffed rather quickly, because Diaw is somewhat overpaid relative to his production, and no one will take on his long overpaid contract without giving up a worse one. That means we’ll probably have to keep these guys as the foundation until at least the 2011 offseason, when Boris’s deal becomes an expiring contract for the next summer. In turn, with the shrinking cap, that means we’re going to have to find an immediate star in the draft in order to take the next step, because we’ll have a little more than $30 million tied up in three players through 2012. Throw in the deals like Diop’s and Radman’s, and we have zero free agency potential. Once we’re able to spend real money on better players, what solid core we have will likely be moving on.

2 — It’s frustrating, because blowing things up, ideally, would have meant standing pat and waiting for the summer of 2011 to start building again around Okafor, Wallace, and Augustin before their deals expire. Richardson would’ve been gone. Nazr would’ve been gone. Carroll’s contract declines over time. May and Morrison would be gone. We’d be swimming in cap space, even with the shrinking cap. Now, we’ve garnered the six seed, but to do it, we’ve forfeited the ability to build upon it.

Rufus on Fire -- SB Nation's Charlotte Bobcats Blog

by David A. Arnott on Feb 27, 2009 8:48 AM EST up reply actions

I understand every team’s goal is to win a championship however in the NBA right now how many teams have a realistic chance of winning a championship?

I’d say 5. (Spurs, C’s, Cavs, Magic and the Lakers)

This team is too far away to even realistically think of themselves as in the hunt but a playoff berth will go a long way towards creating the kind of energy and passion you want the fans to have.

The FO has made questionable moves for sure, but the intention of making the playoffs this year or next was a good one.

by mjschaefer on Feb 27, 2009 12:27 PM EST reply actions

I appreciate the pressure they must feel to make the playoffs and drum up interest, any interest at all. But the notion that making the playoffs will buy time doesn’t ring true in this instance, because it buys time until we start the rebuilding process all over again in 2012 or 2013, and we’ll be right back where we started, with a foundering franchise.

Say you told us we had to make the playoffs in the next two years or lose our jobs. Well, yeah, we’d be going down a similar path, but we shouldn’t have added big money bench players, either, because while that makes getting to the playoffs this year or next a more likely scenario, it also kills our chances of building a team attractive enough to get someone to sign a Richard Jefferson Special contract in Charlotte, in which we’d have enough talent equity to justify overpaying for a guy who could take us to the next level, despite his not-really-superstardom.

Rufus on Fire -- SB Nation's Charlotte Bobcats Blog

by David A. Arnott on Feb 27, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions

David: I’ve liked reading your blog; but your crits of the Bobcats management and LB are burning me out. One of the best teams I’ve ever watched play in the NBA was the Knicks of the late Sixties-early Seventies that featured Clyde Frazier, Willis Reed, Dick Barnett, Dave Debusschere and Bill Bradley. That was one hell of a team; and it didn’t have an elite star. That was beautiful basketball and the most entertaining I’ve ever watched. To actually watch a great team with a great coach is much better than having that one primadonna star IMO. I know what you say is true, that elite stars win championships, sure. But it’s not the only way, and not near as much fun.

Likewise, these elite stars are very, very few and generally not purchased with free agent money. They are generally drafted or otherwise obtained through multi-player trades. I think the Bobcats are doing exactly the right thing by obtaining real talent for marginal. They are building assets.

This is process. The Bobcats are not so absolutely constrained that they can’t further trade these assets for future draft picks and/or better assets. You never stop building.

Tearing this down and starting over would kill this team in this market. They first have to be credible, with talented players and skilled coaches. They’re achieving that this year. Having watched this team since its inception; I have absolutely no use at this time for any do-overs. I like what I’m seeing for sure.

This thing isn’t done.

by Keetch on Feb 27, 2009 5:44 PM EST reply actions

There are two principles I’m working off. First, the modern era of the NBA has evolved to a point that real championship basketball is determined by the best two or three individual players the team can get. You can build a team that’s better than the sum of its parts, as the Pistons have, but that one example is hardly a blueprint for success in light of all the other teams since 1980 that have won championships based on the superstar model.

Second, studies have shown that consistent success over time is what keeps the fans coming (Wages of Wins by Berri). Building a lower tier playoff team that has to rebuild again in two years will put us exactly where we were two and three years ago again in 2012, and that will almost certainly kill off what remaining stragglers there are. What I want is continuing sustained success. Where every other team in the league is staying away from bad/big contracts like the plague (why do you think no one wanted Amar’e Stoudemire even though Phoenix was only asking for crap in return?), we’ve been gathering big and bad contracts in order to make marginal improvements, just for the right to get blown out in the first round the next two years. On top of that, those “assets” we have aren’t really assets. Okafor, Wallace, and Augustin are our most valuable assets, by far. Everyone else is either fungible or horribly overpaid or both, and will be utterly untradeable until it’s time to change the core.

I’d be fine with the strategy if we actually were grabbing assets, as I described here:

The salary cap and luxury tax threshold are probably going to be lower next year, and perhaps even the next, because the economy is contributing to shrinking revenue league wide. The Bobcats were throwing future financial flexibility to the wind, anyway, so why not go full fledged with it? If you’re going into the business of acquiring talent, contract status be damned, then go for the talented guys who are, nonetheless, contractual albatrosses to their current teams. Richard Jefferson. Baron Davis. Vince Carter. Elton Brand. Gilbert Arenas. Don’t half-ass it with guys like Radmanovic and Diop.

Rufus on Fire -- SB Nation's Charlotte Bobcats Blog

by David A. Arnott on Feb 27, 2009 7:50 PM EST up reply actions

I'll settle for a perennial #6 seed

I don’t expect them to ever win a championship. If they can just play well enough that it’s fun to watch and if they can get into the playoffs each year, even if they have no real chance of winning it all, that’s fine by me. I would be more than happy if they were to become the Utah Jazz.

Under Bernie it was rewarding watching them get incrementally better each year. And now, after the horrible lost Season of Sam, it’s once again rewarding watching them get better under Larry Brown— who by the way won it all with that Pistons team you mention. I’m not greedy. This could be a LOT worse and I’m grateful that at least we’re once again making some progress. So it’s not the Lakers— it couldn’t be— but it sure as hell could be the Clippers so let’s count our blessings.

You’re probably correct in your analysis of how championship teams are built, but as noted in the responding comments that route’s not available to all teams. Plus the league is just not set up to encourage third-tier franchises to succeed. That the commissioner’s office thought it ok for the incompetent Kevin McHale to bestow his magnanimous gift upon his incompetent buddy Danny Ainge is testament to the league’s dedication to promoting its flagship franchises above all else, but that’s ok because more tv revenue means the rising tide indirectly lifts all the boats including our Bobcats. (And the old-timers in the broadcast booths love Larry Brown, which can only be to Bobcats fans’ benefit, especially those of us who don’t get the local telecasts— hell, I’ll be happy just to see a game every now and then…)

Every single acquisition they’ve made this season can be viewed in isolation as an incremental improvement, and in sum the effect is they are certainly a better team at this moment than they have ever been in their history. The bad moves all went down last season or before and you just have to chalk it up to the dark winter of Sam’s discontent. That the front office let him start Jeff McInnis tells you how badly they had lost their way and once that downward toilet spiral begins in earnest it’s hard to recollect one’s bearings. But it looks like they’ve gotten their heads back on and they’re doing their best to fix the mistakes of the past. Personally, I am overjoyed by the direction the team has taken this season. Gotta love that they’re going Euro and ya gotta love Larry Brown, who again— let me repeat this, won it all with that Pistons team which had no top stars…

by bugjackblue on Feb 28, 2009 10:38 AM EST reply actions

So its assumed that the team is going to have to be completley rebuilt come 2012-2013 due to the talent and contracts we aquired, but that doesnt have to be the case. Over the next couple of seasons (2009-2010, 2010-2011) look at the positions and money that will be freed up. Raja Bell (making $5 million and expires at the end of next season). Nazi, Vlad, Boris, ($6 mill, $6 mill and $9 mill, respectively ending in 2010-1011). Thats potentially $26 million in salary that will become available if we simply ride out the current contracts that we absorbed. If this current squad continues to progress this season and makes a serious push its first playoff berth next season, then we’ll have already seen just cause for taking on all the money that we did. And if we do make a playoff run, then who’s to say that these contracts that will be expiring over the next couple of season’s will not become valuable trade pieces to bring financial flexability to some other team in exchange for better talent. Maybe im being overally optimistic, but it looks like the cats have enough talent to get to the postseason by next year, and with the contracts we have that will be coming off the books over the next season or two, there will be potential for the cats to make moves, bring in solid talent and to continue to build on its basic core of augustine, wallace and okafor, without having to blow everything up. The goal will be for the cats to show significant progress (i.e. playoffs) and then to make some smart strategic moves with the contracts we have to make the cats better. If they cant do that over the next couple of seasons, then we’ll have no choice but to start all over. The 6th, 7th or 8th seed next year would be great, but it wont be worth anything if LB and management cannot build upon that success given the contracts they’ll have available to them over the next couple of years.

by rtgunn on Mar 2, 2009 7:05 PM EST reply actions