ESPN's John Hollinger predicts playoffs for Bobcats

by James The Aussie on Dec 8, 2009 4:20 PM EST Comment 20 comments

NBA writer John Hollinger does this every year starting around this time. Using a computer simulation run 5,000 times ESPN predicts the results of the 2009-10 NBA season and prognosticates who will make the playoffs this season.

You can find a link to the predictions here.

Essentially what the Hollinger predictions say is this:

- There is currently a 74.6% chance the Bobcats will make the playoffs.

- The Bobcats will likely finish 41-41. Due to a weak year in the Eastern Conference this will lead to the 6th seed in the playoffs having us face Cleveland in the opening round.

- The best case simulation had the Bobcats finishing 58-24, getting 3rd in the East.

- The worst case simulation had the Bobcats finishing 24-58, getting 14th in the East.

- We only have a 0.3% chance of winning the division, a 6.1% chance of reaching the NBA finals and a 3.7% chance of being NBA champions.

Of course this is only a computer simulation, but its promising!

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Sportsclubstats makes similar projections, except they run the season 10,000,000 times.

Here’s the link, but here are the equivalent numbers if you don’t want to surf over.

58.4% chance of making the playoffs

Most likely record of 39-43 and the #8 seed matching us up with the Celtics

Best possible record of 59-23, which would guarantee the #1 seed.

Worst possible record of 20-62, which would likely put us last in the conference.

Doesn’t project the playoffs, but 2.3% chance of being seeded fourth or higher (which would mean the division crown was a possibility.)

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Dec 8, 2009 5:19 PM EST reply actions

Good to know.

Personally, I hope we make the playoffs.

Not only to give the franchise a shot in the arm, but to also go ahead and give that first round pick away now when the 2010 draft looks like a wasteland for truly good big men.

Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.

by James The Aussie on Dec 8, 2009 5:36 PM EST up reply actions

Well, it'd certainly be better to make it than finish just outside of the playoffs.

The pick is only top 12 protected, so we better not end up with the 13th.

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Dec 8, 2009 5:50 PM EST up reply actions

Other Hollinger writings

Nazr Mohammed at the 12th overall spot in PER, right behind Dwight Howard and ahead of Kevin Durant. In comparison, Tyson Chandler’s PER is 255th and Diop… well Diop is fourth from last among NBA players with more than 6 mpg.
Nazr 24.90
Tyson 10.05
Diop -15.73

I would very much like to see Nazr start over Chandler not just because of these stats.

Lemonade was a popular drink and it still is.

by WhatAboutBob_cats on Dec 9, 2009 2:04 PM EST reply actions

...except Mohammed can't sustain his performance as a starter.

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Dec 9, 2009 6:21 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe so

I’d still like to see him try. Also I just noticed this but how is Diop on Hollinger’s list of NBA players with more than 6 mpg? He doesn’t get any time any more.

Lemonade was a popular drink and it still is.

by WhatAboutBob_cats on Dec 9, 2009 8:00 PM EST up reply actions

He has...

It’s not like he’s a young player. He’s been in the league for 12 years, and he has never been able to sustain starter’s minutes when given the opportunity, much less starter’s .

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Dec 9, 2009 10:13 PM EST up reply actions

*starter's production.

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Dec 9, 2009 10:13 PM EST up reply actions

So who would you rather start then?

Lemonade was a popular drink and it still is.

by WhatAboutBob_cats on Dec 9, 2009 11:58 PM EST up reply actions

I'm not saying he's not the best option for this team.

I’m just saying that he’s going to fall over dead if you try to start him and play him 25+ minutes a night. Take a look at his game logs and check how often he’s put up big-minute nights back to back over the course of his career. That’s not a coincidence given how long he’s played in the league.

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Dec 10, 2009 3:57 AM EST up reply actions

In defense of Nazr

He’s never been able to play starter’s minutes, but this is the Bobcats.
If Nazr can last past the 5 minute mark of the first quarter, he’ll outlast our present starting center roughly half the time.

Seriously, I’ve thought this through. If Nazr starts the game and gives us a shift of, say 7-8 minutesthis will put Chandler on the court with the (presumably) slower and less skilled bench players of the opposition. Because of this he’ll be better able to defend without fouling and be able to offer a bit more at the offensive end against the scrubs. Nazr shouldn’t see an appreciable drop in numbers because he’s often getting into the game while the other team is still running their starters to begin with.

It may not work out, but I think it’s worth the try because we’re basically getting bupkis out of the center spot under the status quo. The only thing that’s keeping us from trying it imo, is that the team brass can’t stomach the idea of opening the game with $11 million riding the pine.

by Ourdaywillcome on Dec 10, 2009 12:03 AM EST up reply actions

And that last bit is a concern.

I’m not saying that Mohammed shouldn’t or doesn’t deserve to start. He just can’t play 30 MPG as a typical starter would be expected to.

Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt

by MichaelProcton on Dec 10, 2009 3:58 AM EST up reply actions

Do you think our starting 5 could start with...

Chandler, Nazr, Wallace, Jax, and Felton?
Then as subs come in we go…
Diaw, Diop, Brown, Flip, and DJ or
Shake it up and go…
Brown, Nazr, Wallace, Henderson, and Felton

There are so many combinations I would like to see…
Just never happens…
I don’t ever care to see the first set of subs I mentioned…
And we Know that 5 minutes in with the first lineup, Chandler is being pulled because he already has 3 fouls trying to guard the faster PFs in the league.

by andrewlail76 on Dec 10, 2009 12:49 PM EST up reply actions

It would be a hybrid move

I’d expect Mohammed to still play his normal 18-22 minutes per.
Quarter 1: We open with 7-8 minutes of Nazr starting. Chandler mops up.
Quarter 2: Chandler for the first few minutes. We spell him with Mohammed for another 4-5 minutes with Chandler coming back to finish the half.
Quarter 3 we start with Chandler and then play it by ear depending on the foul situation and how we have to adjust our lineups based on how the opposing coach is using his subs.
Quarter 4 we use Chandler as much as possible. If he has 3+ fouls then it won’t matter.

There will be nights when Nazr will wind up in the 25 minute range, but most nights he’ll end up with similar court time digits to what we have now.

I’m looking at this solely as a means to get Chandler more action in the 2nd half. As it stands now, we’re sitting Chandler for 17 or more minutes in the first half every time he gets his famous quick pair of pfs. By shifting Nazr’s minutes over to the beginning of the game it gives us usage of Chandler in the 2nd quarter where he’s often stuck in his chair and Nazr is piling up minutes by default.

by Ourdaywillcome on Dec 10, 2009 1:05 PM EST up reply actions