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Joel Przybilla Out for the Year...Can We Benefit?

(This is from the FanPosts. A quick note before further rosterbation ensues: Tyson Chandler will be out for at least a week with a left foot injury. Not good times for a seven footer, and possibly enough to ensure that Nazr maintains present-day value to the Bobcats such that the brass feels they can't trade him. --DA)

===

So Joel Przybilla just went down for the year with a ruptured patella, and the Trail Blazers are starting to get pretty desperate to find healthy frontcourt bodies.  Anybody think we can take advantage of this situation and pick up a quality player or two?

Star-divide

I haven't delved too far into the possibilities, but one trade that works:

Nazr Mohammed

DeSagana Diop

for

Martell Webster

Przybilla

This trade would make us younger and more skilled, while not also making our salary allocation more efficient.

In terms of skill, let's first look at Przybilla and Diop: Przybilla is injured, and may struggle to come back from a significant knee injury at his age, but even if we get nothing out of him, we'll be losing very little compared to Diop, who essentially provides nothing even when healthy.  If Przybilla comes back next year to be even an average NBA bench C, we're much improved at that spot on the depth chart.

Next, let's look at a swap of Webster for Mohammed.  This would leave us very thin in our post reserves, but in reality, Mohammed is not a player who should be terribly difficult to replace.  He's essentially a league-average center or a little below, and he's one who's shown he can't sustain performance given starter's minutes (30+.)  We tend to overrate him only because of Chandler's ineptitude.  We'd still have an open roster spot to use on a a free agent,  D-League player, or even one of Portland's little-used post reserves (Juwan Howard, Dante Cunningham, Jeff Pendergraph), who could all be included in a valid trade as an add-on to the above deal.  In Webster, we'd get a young, athletic SF who has the size to be able to handle playing some spot minutes at PF like Derrick Brown has done this yearIn fact, Webster even has experience doing just that in three of the past four years.  Webster would also add a three-point shooter to the roster, something this team desperately needs.  He also brings the experience of being a 70-game starter just two years ago.  His rebounding isn't great, but it's good enough, and he's not going to make bad decisions with the ball (1.9 TO/48, a number that would rank above every Bobcat this year except Gerald Henderson and Brown.)  He isn't regarded as a particularly consistent or great defender, but take a look at this article from SBN site Blazersedge, where they break down a defensive performance in which Webster served as the primary defender against Kevin Durant and held him to a single field goal in a game.  A game like that certainly shows his potential as a solid defender, which would probably be tapped by Larry Brown.  At worst, he'd provide solid insurance to a Gerald Wallace injury and energy off the bench.

Now, let's take a look at the financial considerations.  Przybilla and Mohammed are the closest matches from a financial consideration.  Mohammed is scheduled to get $13.35 million guaranteed over the next two years before his contract expires.  Przybilla's contract runs at $6.86 million this year, with a $7.41 million player option next year that he's very likely to exercise given his injury.  That would be a total cost of $14.26 million over the two years total, which would essentially be a wash.  However, given his injury, Przybilla may well have part of his salary through the end of the year and/or next year covered by insurance, which would be a benefit to any team which employed him.

 

Webster and Diop are both under contract for the next three years with an option for a fourth, but that's where the similarity ends.  Webster's owed a total of $14.40 million for the guaranteed years, while Diop is owed $19.45 million.  And their option is different, too.  Webster has a team option at a seemingly-reasonable $5.71 million, while Diop's is a player option at $7.37 million.  Given that both options seem likely to be picked up, that'd be a total cost of $20.11 million for Webster and $26.82 million for Diop. In total, this deal would save the Bobcats about $5.8 million over the next four years, which, while not huge, isn't insignificant with the team losing money at a high rate and potentially looking to sell.

Unfortunately, the factors that make this trade attractive for Charlotte are also likely to make it unattractive for  Portland, although crazier things have happened.  Portland has shown a good acumen in personnel moves over the last few years while building a young and affordable team that's still a contender in the much-tougher Western Conference.  We'd basically have to hope that they panicked and made a mistake because they want to contend this year and need healthy frontcourt bodies to do it.  It would probably mean we had less of a chance to compete in the East this year, but it would markedly improve the team going forward, with a productive player replacing Diop's anchor contract.  We'd be exceptionally lucky to pull off this dump, but hey, it never hurt anybody to make the call right?  I'd love to hear thoughts below about this trade or others we might be able to pull off with Portland to help ease their frontcourt issues.  Another option that Portland might be more receptive to might be to take Andre Miller off their hands.  Even if you believe Raymond Felton has improved his game to the point he's worth resigning to the kind of big-money deal he wants, perhaps Miller and Felton could perform well in the backcourt together.  Let me know.

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I like Diop for Pryzbilla. Only thing is wouldnt they make Pryzbilla pass a physical first.
 I also like Webster but that would take away from Derrick Browns minutes. If we make a trade for a power forward and have webster, it will leave no room for brown.

Also, I disagree that Nazr Mohammed would be easy to replace. Where else are we gonna find a backup center with a per 36 of 19ppg and 11 rpg. Hes also shooting .594FG% this year. If we gave him up, we would have only diaw, brown, chandler down low until next year when pryzbilla is back.

Like I said, I like pryzbilla but I dont like giving up mohammed until pryzbilla is healthy. We defintely should take advantage of their desperation for a center but I think we need to get a third team involved. We need to trade one of our centers and a guard or two for a power forward and pryzbilla. I know Brandon bass is out there. Also, do the rockets really need scola and carl landry. I bet theyd give up one for the right price.

by MR. MANN on Dec 23, 2009 2:18 PM EST reply actions  

They'd likely waive the physical, given they know what they'd be getting.

Matt Harpring was just traded yesterday despite the fact that he’s got a bone-on-bone condition he’s all but admitted will never allow him to play again. That’s how it tends to work when injured players are traded. Unless, of course, they found something wrong with him other than his most recent injury.

Sorry about the Brown issues, but if you have a chance to replace a second-rounder with a 70-game starter for a .500 team in the west, you do it.

Mohammed is on a decent run, but 30 games don’t change who he is as a player: a mediocre journeyman who’s overpaid for his production. I also mentioned several options for picking up another player, including FA signings or another piece to the trade. Also, if you consider Brown a post player, you probably shouldn’t discount Webster in the same role. At 6’7", 235, he’s thicker and not much shorter than Brown at 6’7.5", 227.

Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE

by MichaelProcton on Dec 23, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions  

I came away with one thing from your idea

Whenever I think about trade possibilities I hoard Nazr like Daffy Duck amidst the genie’s treasure. Maybe I should’ve called myself the Happy Mizer instead of ourday.
I believe the resurgence of Nazr is real and that he is one of the hidden buttresses that supports this team behind the Tenacious Three. He so far outpaces Chandler that I breathe an audible sigh of relief each time he enters the game. But that relief has clouded my objectivity. I disagree when you say 30 games doesn’t change who he has been. I think we’re past the stage where we can call his play a fluke, just as I’m coming to believe that the positive growth of Raymond Felton is the real deal. I believe Felton really does know his role and only slips into the “go-to-guy” costume now when one of our frontmen is down. But that’s a whole ’nother story.

Where I got a little myopic regarding Nazr is that I haven’t looked beyond this season. The timeline for Nazr’s resurgence is limited by his advancing age. This is Nazr’s second wind. But as any athlete that has pushed through his wall knows, a second wind only lasts but so long. Kareem managed to last well past his prime and he was able to stick around until his slow decline finally became painful to watch. But Nazr is no Kareem. When it all catches up with him and that second wind leaves him, we will have an aged bench player of no value beyond what he might teach some baby-faced newbie. Whatever trade value Nazr has is at its peak right now. We either find a taker for him or he ends his career sitting broken on the bench. In our current center situation we cannot afford to go long without a solid reserve. But Nazr, as you have said, wouldn’t be that difficult to replace. If we can find a team that wants him or can be made to even think that they want him, we should thank the basketball gods and let him go.

But the trade you suggest doesn’t free up money for us to shop for his replacement and will leave us even thinner at center than we presently are at power forward. By taking Pryzybilla we get one of the few players in the league that are less useful to us than Graham – at least for the rest of this season. I don’t think we can really afford to trade the closest thing we have to a real center and get a player that won’t be able to suit up until next fall at the earliest.

by Ourdaywillcome on Dec 23, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Frankly, I think we can get by without Mohammed this season. I think the Bobcats shouldn’t be shooting for a team ETA of the 2010 playoffs. They’re not good enough or consistent enough to do much even if they get there. As for replacing Mohammed, we’d still have our open roster spot to pursue another C for a replacement-level player (a Stromile Swift, a Chris Mihm, a Jermareo Davidson, a Michael Ruffin ,a Robert Swift, etc.) We also actually would free up money in the payroll. And then there’s also the option of another trade, we’d just have more attractive pieces on the team to move than we had before.

Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE

by MichaelProcton on Dec 23, 2009 5:01 PM EST up reply actions  

That's not as appealing to me.

Graham’s no worse than Diop, but Diop’s owed significantly more money for a longer term. We’d be stuck with his bad contract on the bench. That’s one of the key benefits of this deal for us. In addition, Mohammed has proven over an eleven-year career that he’s not a starter at center. Chandler might have sucked, but he also doesn’t fall over the night after he plays 35 minutes.

Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE

by MichaelProcton on Dec 23, 2009 4:00 PM EST up reply actions  

how about...

Joel Przybilla and Dante Cunningham for Diop…it works in the espn trade machine…I believe its a good trade for us b/c we get rid of Diop’s contract and get good prospect at PF..

This could solve some of our frontcourt depth issues and get rid Diop who is basically useless on this team…only thing that concerns me is LB not playing Cunningham b/c hes a rookie.

by jay23 on Dec 23, 2009 4:25 PM EST reply actions  

Also this way we also don’t have to give up Nazr…

by jay23 on Dec 23, 2009 4:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Why in god's name would they do that.

I said they need healthy bodies, but they’re not going to take a guy just because of that. The idea would be that they’d take Diop because he was with Mohammed, a guy they can probably count on to give them a solid 20-25 minutes a night. Anything Diop did would be gravy.

Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE

by MichaelProcton on Dec 23, 2009 4:53 PM EST up reply actions  

With Batum, Fernandez, and Outlaw all injured, trading Webster seems to be unlikely. At least, until one or two of those guys come back. Unless, of course, you add Graham. ;)

by jj24 on Dec 23, 2009 5:05 PM EST reply actions  

That's true, definitely.

But I didn’t think they were out as long as they apparently are. Fernandez, though, could be back as soon as two weeks from now.

Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE

by MichaelProcton on Dec 23, 2009 6:39 PM EST up reply actions  

we aren't trading diop

he has a horrible contract, absolutely no trade value whatsoever.
I also don’t see them trading pryzbilla, seeing that he is pretty much dead weight and they have no reason to get rid of him because they can use him as an expiring contract next year.

I can see a nazr for andre miller swap straight up. or I can see this trade:
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=ylydyu7
pros for cats: get two decent players.
cons: pretty much prevent any sort of trade or FA transaction for the next two years

pros for philly: get rid of dalembert. get rid of brand. (we could throw in acie law and say they can also get the passing pg they really need), get another athletic wingman who conveniently has expiring contract
cons for philly: they lose their two best post players. not that they really needed them anyways with speights coming back

pros for portland: get rid of andre miller’s contract. get a replacement for pryzbilla.
cons: have to take on untradable salary for next year.

the real crux of this deal would be portland. next year they will have aldridge, oden, pryz, and dalembert. One of them would be traded, but there are going to be a lot of teams with big man issues, like minessota clearly is awful on defense without a true big man that is somewhere close to competent (mark blount, briancardinal do not count). http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=ykb28ez is a very feasible trade that I see happening, with portland or philly chipping in some sort of first round pick to minni.

by Jew Unit on Dec 23, 2009 8:42 PM EST reply actions  

ESPN trade links don't work.

Do it again on RealGM.

Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE

by MichaelProcton on Dec 23, 2009 10:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Blazers fan here

As jj mentions above, Portland is short on SF with all the injuries so Webster will most likely stay put for now.

Also, KP has made pretty shrewd trades so far so why is he going to panic and trade real players for filler like Mohammed or Diop? How many dominant centers are there in the Western Conference? Dallas thought they could unleash Dampier last night and Portland was more than willing to let him shoot. Small ball might work for the rest of the season and there is a possibility Oden can return this season.

I know Juwan Howard is not the long term answer, but I think he can fill in.

by torsoheap on Dec 23, 2009 10:49 PM EST reply actions  

Most of your points are well taken

But Nazr Mohammed isn’t filler. At least not yet. He has just about enough juice left to work out his existing contract as a reliable bench reserve before his age gets the best of him. He may not fit the Blazers needs, but his stats are respectable enough this year to make him attractive to any number of teams for the short (this season and next) term.

by Ourdaywillcome on Dec 23, 2009 11:38 PM EST up reply actions  

He's also got a wealth of playoff experience, something the Blazers' roster sorely lacks.

Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE

by MichaelProcton on Dec 24, 2009 12:52 AM EST up reply actions  

Mohammed may be a step above filler, but

he’s not good enough justifying a panic trade.

I think it really depends on Przy’s prognosis. Rupturing your patella tendon falls into the not-good category of injuries. Is he going to be the same dude when he’s healthy? He’s been in the league a while and, as a center, takes a lot of major league shots (including a legendary one to the bait and tackle courtesy of Reggie Evans) so it’s hard to say what he has left in the tank.

If both are healthy, Przy >> Mohammed.

Portland needs to think beyond this season into the next because they’re getting the pieces in place for a championship run. I’m not sure Mohammed fits.

by torsoheap on Dec 24, 2009 10:31 AM EST up reply actions  

Certainly Przybilla's better than Mohammed.

But the knee injury Joely had was devastating, particularly for a guy his age. No telling what he comes back as.

Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE

by MichaelProcton on Dec 24, 2009 11:13 AM EST up reply actions  

I know.

When I heard he blew out his knee, my first thought was his career is over.

by torsoheap on Dec 24, 2009 1:16 PM EST up reply actions  

the vanilla gorilla fallout

since the Knicks have been coveting Augustin, why dont we get them involved in the trade? its a stretch, but hear me out… We get Harrington from NY & Blake from Portland ($14M expiring this year) – NY gets Augustin from us, & Outlaw (expiring) & Pryzbilla (buyout?) from Portland – Portland gets Chandler from us & Jeffries from NY

NY gives up the Jeffries contract they seem to loathe for Przybilla’s near identical one, but I feel Augustin being involved would at least make them think

by bobcatRedemption on Dec 24, 2009 4:23 AM EST reply actions  

What would be the point of clearing all that cap space.

Nobody any good will want to come to Charlotte to play in front of the dozens of fans while they compete for 40 wins and the #6 seed.

Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE

by MichaelProcton on Dec 24, 2009 9:04 AM EST up reply actions  

Can we find a way to get Patty Mills?

I’m telling everyone, the kid is going to be special. If we lose Felton to free agency Mills will be the perfect backup.

Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.

by James The Aussie on Dec 24, 2009 2:38 PM EST reply actions  

He's got a very low salary, so he could certainly be tacked on to most any deal that got done.

Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE

by MichaelProcton on Dec 24, 2009 3:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Felton's MUCH better there.

When he doesn’t dictate the flow of the offense, he shoots better and still has an opportunity to set up players with his passing skill. it’s not that he’s bad fundamentally. He just makes bad decisions.

Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE

by MichaelProcton on Dec 24, 2009 8:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Sorry Capn' but you're just plain wrong.

I’m going to have to refer you to previous discussions on this board concerning Felton/Miller. The numbers clearly show that Felton is MUCH better as a point guard. As a point guard, Felton’s PER and opponent PER are respectable. His time at the 2 skew his overall season numbers.

by and1droid on Dec 25, 2009 11:55 AM EST up reply actions  

Sorry, Chief, but you're referring to a 30 game sample.

I’m talking about his whole career.

Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE

by MichaelProcton on Dec 25, 2009 12:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Nope. Wrong again.

I’m not referring to this season. I’m referring to last season actually, which together with this season, makes a strong case for Felton’s current abilities.

by and1droid on Dec 25, 2009 2:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Word on the streets

Cleveland wants a versatile power forward that can shoot the ball and are willing to package Iglauskas and Hickson.

by MR. MANN on Dec 26, 2009 11:40 AM EST reply actions  

Word on the streets is also that Hickson is untouchable outside of a "home run" deal.

Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE

by MichaelProcton on Dec 26, 2009 6:42 PM EST up reply actions  

I did hear that in the past but

I saw this today. Not too sure about the credibility so thats why its just word on the streets.
http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=14779

by MR. MANN on Dec 26, 2009 6:45 PM EST up reply actions  

2 options

First, Ive modified your trade including Cleveland.

Charlotte gets JJ Hickson, Pryzbilla
Cleveland gets Boris Diaw, Martell Webster
Portland gets Iglauskas

We get a real power forward. Cleveland gets a versatile power forward and a good wing defender. Portland saves a ton of money and adds a much needed, starting caliber center this season.

option 2

Charlotte gets Iglauskas, Hickson
Cleveland gets Diaw, Mohommed

Not sure why but the espn trade machine says this decreases our wins by 13, but it looks decent to me.

by MR. MANN on Dec 26, 2009 12:01 PM EST reply actions  

the first one is preferable

i really like the idea of adding JJ Hickson. He was a beast at NC State, and i like his post game and believe he would improve the Bobcats. And if Pryzbilla ever gets healthy again, the Cats are essentially getting a two for one on post players.

In the second option, i’m not sure how much better Ilgaskus really is these days compared to Mohammed. As far as value, the first option seems like it is the most bang for the Bobcats’ buck.

by dudemanhey on Dec 26, 2009 3:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Absolutely not.

Why would they want two awful players for a solid rotational guard.

Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE

by MichaelProcton on Dec 26, 2009 6:43 PM EST up reply actions  

addressing the predicted win decrease

It’s probably based on Hollinger’s PER. Nazr has the twelfth highest PER in NBA players averaging at least 6 mpg or something. His high PER is probably why the predicted result is more losses. Also I just noticed that Nazr’s PER in the trade machine is 7.7 (last year’s) but as it stands now, his PER is 23.86

Lemonade was a popular drink and it still is.

by WhatAboutBob_cats on Dec 26, 2009 5:48 PM EST up reply actions  

2 options

First, Ive modified your trade including Cleveland.

Charlotte gets JJ Hickson, Pryzbilla
Cleveland gets Boris Diaw, Martell Webster
Portland gets Iglauskas

We get a real power forward. Cleveland gets a versatile power forward and a good wing defender. Portland saves a ton of money and adds a much needed, starting caliber center this season.

option 2

Charlotte gets Iglauskas, Hickson
Cleveland gets Diaw, Mohommed

Not sure why but the espn trade machine says this decreases our wins by 13, but it looks decent to me.

by MR. MANN on Dec 26, 2009 12:01 PM EST reply actions  

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