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Larry Brown's Young Players in the 2000s

Let's take a look at the rookies and second year players Larry Brown has coached this decade. I'll list the teams, the players, and their minutes per game. Guys who went on to reasonably decent role player NBA careers or better are italicized.

This ignores Games Played, and obviously, some guys were blocked by legit starters, but... well... draw your own conclusions. All numbers are from the invaluable Basketball-Reference.com.

===

99-00 76ers -- Ira Bowman (1.8), Larry Hughes (20.4), Jumaine Jones (4.2), Todd MacCulloch (9.4), Nazr Mohammed (6.8)

00-01 76ers -- Raja Bell (6.0), Rodney Buford (12.2), Jumaine Jones (13.3), Todd MacCulloch (9.5), Pepe Sanchez (4.8)

01-02 76ers -- Raja Bell (12.0), Damone Brown (3.9), Speedy Claxton (22.8), Samuel Dalembert (5.2), Alvin Jones (5.5), Jabari Smith (10.0)

Star-divide

02-03 76ers -- Efthimi Rentzias (4.1), John Salmons (7.9), Kenny Satterfield (4.8)

03-04 Pistons -- Darko Milicic (4.7), Mehmet Okur (22.3), Tayshaun Prince (32.9)

04-05 Pistons -- Carlos Delfino (15.3), Ronald Dupree (10.0), Horace Jenkins (6.9), Darko Milicic (6.9), Smush Parker (10.0)

05-06 Knicks -- Trevor Ariza (19.7), Jackie Butler (13.5), Channing Frye (24.2), David Lee (16.9), Nate Robinson (21.4), Ime Udoka (14.3)

===

The first major caveat of a backwards-looking glance like this is that we don't know if Brown's methods helped or hurt anyone. Maybe John Salmons really did need to be eased into the rotation at just under 8 minutes per game, and that was the stepping stone experience he needed. Maybe Efthimi Rentzias was railroaded by Brown's total shutdown, and he's selling insurance in Greece because no one else would give him a chance after that.

So, should we be worried by the fact that not a single star has emerged from Larry Brown's influence, with the exception, perhaps, of Tayshaun Prince?

What I see from this list is that Brown will play the guys he thinks are going to help him immediately, and if a guy can't, he'll sit until he's older. That kills the guys whose ceilings are "decent starter". Todd MacCulloch was no great shakes, but he started at center for back to back NBA Finals teams. Samuel Dalembert won't blow you away with his game, but the year after Brown left, he missed the entire season on the injured list, then the next year began starting and has started at center in Philly ever since.

I get the distinct sense it's a very college-hoops-oriented approach: freshmen and sophomores have a higher bar to clear to prove they should play over juniors and seniors. Of course, in the NBA, young players are paid far below their free market value (as are superstars), so it behooves teams to get production from young players while they're cheap instead of sitting them until they reach their qualifying offer years, when their salaries will come more in line with their potential production.

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Nice research!

It presents some hard data to indicate that LB may create winning teams but is not so hot when it comes to producing winning players. Because each case was unique because of some of the variables you mentioned (as well as others) I’m sure the few ILBIT zealots that still exist out there will poke holes in your conclusion and individually, the Brown effect can be debated. But when looked at from the perspective of the big picture you have provided, it’s pretty damning evidence. You also confirmed something for me I mentioned a few days ago; that Brown’s approach to coaching is still college-minded. When he looks at Henderson he doesn’t think “rookie” so much as he thinks “underclassman” or “junior varsity.”

I look forward to the non-game days here at Rufus because you always manage to come up with something that is interesting and also debatable enough to get a discussion up and running. I scrounge the trades and websites myself looking for information but you seem to have a steady supply already in your pocket just waiting for a scheduling lull.

by Ourdaywillcome on Dec 18, 2009 10:17 AM EST reply actions  

You're right, just one star...

But Bell, Hughes, Claxton, Salmons, Okur, Ariza, Frye, Lee, Robinson, and Udoka have all had their moments of contributing as major rotation players for varios teams.

Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE

by MichaelProcton on Dec 18, 2009 10:23 AM EST reply actions  

Lee is close to being a star.

He is underrated and, in my opinion, one of the best power fowards in the game right now. Salmons was looking like he could be a star last year, in Sac and in Chi. This year, it looks like Deng coming back has really killed Salmons production. Okur made the allstar team in 2007. Id have to say these guys could be labeled as stars at some point in their careers, just not superstars.

by MR. MANN on Dec 18, 2009 12:59 PM EST reply actions  

Why should we be worried that no one from this list is a "star?"

Is there evidence that we should expect coaches to produce stars? I know coaching is important, but the true stars of the league are generally that way because of their abilities, not their coaches. The true stars of today (Paul, Wade, James, Kobe, Dwight) may have been helped by their coaches but aren’t created by their coaches. Outside of Wallace (who still needs a jump shot if we’re honest) LB isn’t really coaching star talent right now. And don’t jump on me about the Wallace comment. I love his game and think he deserves to be an all star this year.

Let’s not forget the draft always has been and always will be a bit of a crap shoot.

by and1droid on Dec 18, 2009 1:54 PM EST reply actions  

Yes, coaches should produce stars.

That’s the whole point of player development. Brown doesn’t do it.

Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE

by MichaelProcton on Dec 18, 2009 2:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Furthermore

Shouldn’t the true concern be that outside of Tayshawn Price all of the above players did not improve their game, or make a name for themselves until either Brown left the team, or the were traded.

That’s the biggest concern for me.

Cat Scratch Reader's resident optimist.

by James The Aussie on Dec 18, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions  

I think that its more to do with the natural maturation of young players than it is Brown leaving. It takes a few years for a player to get comfortable and learn the pro game. It is a coincidence because Brown never stays at the same place very long.

I agree with And1. You either have god-given talent to be a star or you dont. Coaches help players but they in no way make a player a star.

by MR. MANN on Dec 18, 2009 2:25 PM EST up reply actions  

I mostly agree with you, but here’s what we don’t know: If Larry Brown has a demonstrable extreme bias against young players (this post doesn’t prove that, but I think it’s fair to say it’s widely suspected he does), then how do we know he’s not damaging careers that would be otherwise successful, if not world-beating? Guys who last a long time in the league get minutes as rookies. Chicken or egg, it doesn’t really matter to me, because every other team has figured out how to give their young dudes minutes and find out if they can hang, and it’s crazy that ours is the only team that hasn’t.

by David A. Arnott on Dec 18, 2009 4:35 PM EST up reply actions  

OK, here's some thoughtful evidence.

Every player you mentioned was allowed 33 MPG save Kobe, and he had the worst rate stats of his career, which says to me that he had the ability to play better, but was limited by the coaching decisions about him. In addition, he was coming out of high school, as opposed to most of the above-mentioned "young players in the 2000s.’

Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE

by MichaelProcton on Dec 19, 2009 11:06 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm not going to jump on you for the Wallace comment

just the coaching comments.

It is the rarest of atheletes that makes it to the pro ranks because of their abilities. It is their abilities that get them in front of the coaches that make them stars. Raw eggs, milk, flour, butter, and assorted other flavorings must be present for a delicate pastry to be created, but you can’t toss them on the counter and expect them to mix themselves. A master chef must be present to know what quantities to apply where and when.

This won’t be one of my long posts. It doesn’t need to be.

by Ourdaywillcome on Dec 18, 2009 7:17 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Great Post

When I think of stars in this league. They were ALL allowed to play in their first couple of years. There are very few late bloomers in the NBA (Steve Nash comes to mind…. no one else) It’s hard to become great if you’re stuck on the bench.

Larry Brown didn’t develop any Knicks players either. Ugh!

by Kaanon on Dec 18, 2009 3:17 PM EST reply actions  

I’ve long held the suspicion — haven’t seen confirmation either way — that NBA talent evaluators are good enough to pick up on stars by the time they get to an NBA team, meaning that once a guy’s on an NBA team, if he’s going to be a big time player, everyone knows it right away, and it’s common knowledge even if the dude doesn’t play up to the expected level. Think Kobe coming off the bench his first year in L.A.

Nash is a prime example of a late bloomer, and Jermaine O’Neal might be the only guy who totally flew under the radar in the NBA for a few years before becoming a real star, though I’ve heard Portland people say he tore it up in practice and it was a real mystery why he didn’t get more PT.

by David A. Arnott on Dec 18, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Kobe's first year was very limited.

He put up the worst rate stats in his career, and he only played 15 MPG. He probably could have done more had he been given the opportunity.

Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE

by MichaelProcton on Dec 19, 2009 11:08 AM EST up reply actions  

I mean, even Nash was playing 22 minutes per game his second year in the league, and that was with Jason Kidd and an aging Kevin Johnson still on the team.

by David A. Arnott on Dec 18, 2009 4:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Chauncey Billups

"Late to bed and late to wake keeps you long on money and short on mistakes".

by Julius Coxswain on Dec 18, 2009 10:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Chauncey Billups was a late bloomer…

"Late to bed and late to wake keeps you long on money and short on mistakes".

by Julius Coxswain on Dec 18, 2009 10:56 PM EST up reply actions  

I can't help myself

A little more elaboration on the coaching thing, now that I’ve read the other posts.

1. It is at the college level (to a lesser extent high school) that most American athletes learn how to hone their raw talents.
2. Even then, it generally takes players several seasons to “learn” how to play the pro game – especially in basketball. As evidence of this, how many basketball players make the AllStar squad in their first season? Second? If they were “born” stars it wouldn’t be news whenever a rookie hit it big – it would be the expectation. It would only be newsworthy if a rookie turned out to be a failure.
3. The exceptions to the things I’m talking about are in sports like tennis, skating, and soccer. In these types of sports, the earlier a good coach can begin working with the athletes the better the chance the player will develop a pro game.

The deeper irony here is that LB coaches like an old school college coach but fails when working with young players. It should be his primary forte. If we attribute the improvements in Felton this year to the influences of Brown, where are the same dramatic improvements in our other players? Do the other dozen odd NBA athletes on our team just not listen? Is our team comprised of players that somehow, despite their “natural” born skills were all NBA unready?

Yes, there are people such as Kobe that have insane skills coming out of the gate, but they are rare. Tommy Heinsohn said that Larry Bird was a rookie, “for about 20 minutes.”
But the truth of it is, NBA coaches teach young players the NBA level plays. They work to refine the existing raw talents of the players coming up. They work with veterans that need new skills (like the earlier mentioned jumpshot absent from Wallace’s repertoire).

A player receiving a college hoops scholarship gets it because of the presence of talent and (most of the time) the genetic disposition toward bumping his head on doorframes.

A player drafted into the NBA at (most years) the 5 pick or lower comes into the league with known flaws and absences in their overall game that the coaching staff is responsible for correcting.

Larry Brown does not do these things and David, your chart illustrates that.

by Ourdaywillcome on Dec 18, 2009 7:38 PM EST reply actions  

Are you implying that some of these guys would have been stars had LB given them more minutes?

Because that seems like a huge stretch. I agree with Android. Coaches don’t create stars out of thin air. I don’t think Kobe, Lebron, Jordan, etc… became stars just because they had a great coach. Jordan wasn’t doomed for mediocrity had Phil Jackson not been his coach. However coaches are responsible for building a team around a star that can win championships… That’s exactly what Jackson did.

So, considering Augustin and Brown got very solid rookie minutes… I assume this is just another bitter Henderson post. I definitely agree he needs more minutes. But I don’t agree that the lack of is ruining his chances to be a star.

on behalf of tha dirty south: soul food, carolina blue, southern hospitality, and tha queen city

by southtunnel on Dec 18, 2009 9:36 PM EST reply actions  

If you don’t think Henderson is good enough to play, then you don’t think he’s good enough to play.

But surely you must admit that it’s odd, if not baffling, that the one team that plays its rookies the least is a team in the midst of building itself up and not, say, a team on the precipice of a title.

by David A. Arnott on Dec 18, 2009 10:11 PM EST up reply actions  

i completely agree

its very painfully obvious that you win championships and BUILD franchises off of young players. just look at OKC. just three years ago we knew them as the Sonics that were surely doomed.
but as opposed to getting older, they traded every asset they had and moved up in the draft—remember when they got Jeff Green and Kevin Durant (both star-caliber) on the same night for pretty much just Ray Allen?

the point is, you cant bank on the experience of vets to bring you wins. thats a “win now” stragety that will only get you in a hole. you have to have something to look forward too in young talent, which is what i believe David has been trying to say from day 1.
maybe LB is just a stingy grumpy old man who wont change his ways, but he has to learn someday that what worked for you then (playing vets 99% of the time) is not going to work for you now. teams like Milwaukee, OKC, NJ, and Portland have all jumped on the smart boat and gotten a whole lot younger.
so yea, getting younger makes you suck, but only periodically.

David, i also agree that Henderson HAS to be more skilled than Graham. he just has to be. and it baffles me still that LB wont play him.

--(insert quote, lyric, or joke here)

by StudMuffin15 on Dec 18, 2009 10:29 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I disagree

Going young is a strategy that can backfire, if you dont draft well or you are in weak draft classes there is no guaranteed success and with free agency there is always the possibility that those players leave your team before the championship window is open.

Few teams I can remember have won a championship after having the same young core for many years the recent champions Lakers are veterans and were almost put together over one or two seasons, Celtics were put together basically in one season, The Spurs were gifted Duncan and built around a true franchise big (mostly with veterans that included the likes of Horry, Bowen, Barry and with Ginobli and Parker, but it’s fair to say they never went backwards to go forwards they had one losing season when Robinson went down. Then lakers in the earlu 00’s were again built by bringing in Shaq and building a bunch of Vets around him and Kobe. Miami again the same veterans around Shaq and Wade. Detroit had Tayshawn and a bunch of good defensive veterans.

I could continue but my point is that is a proven way of winning and I’m not saying Portland and OKC are doing it wrong they aren’t but what they are doing is unproven.

by AirGiles on Dec 19, 2009 12:03 AM EST up reply actions  

hmmm

interesting point.

i didnt intend on my post instantly infering that a roster full of youngins could bring you championships. you really do need a good cast of vets to help mentor them.

but the evidence of the young stragety is thick and plentiful.
take a look at NJ. ill use them as my model team. this team surely will suck this season and most likely next, but once they can get over that hump, the possibilities are endless.
for one, Devin Harris seems like a smart guy. right now, hes not old enough to truly be called a vet, yet, he’s been around long enough to not be a kid. so i assume that he can/will be able to see the deep talent that the Nets are. between him, Lee, Lopez, and Terrance Williams (who as far as im concerned is a Bobcat), thats a good 4-5 seasons together in NJ.

now, a vet heavy team like the Bobcats, for instance, are forced to look at the short term investment of players that have been around the block a few times. not saying this gets you nowhere, but it doesnt serve as the solid foundation you would want as a fan first, and a GM second. these guys—at most—will play 2-3 seasons together before being either shipped out or having their contract run out.
San Antonio is a very good exception to this type of team though, and i would argue that the Lakers started off with a young core in the early 00s (using Fox and maybe Shaq as exceptions)

but a healthy mix of young talent and experience can account for a strong competitor.

i wouldnt go as far as to say that going young is a surefire way to coast into a dynasty (due to the barriers you listed like poor drafting, player disgruntlement, and coaching maybe), but its a favorable way to cruise into one.

stalemate.

--(insert quote, lyric, or joke here)

by StudMuffin15 on Dec 19, 2009 12:53 AM EST up reply actions  

I agree with that

As far as being a fan goes you’d rather go for a team you know will be good for years like OKC, Atlanta or Portland than a team you know could be rebuilt any time. What I would argue though is that a team doesn’t actually need to hit bottom to start again like New jersey.

For example take the Bobcats for example lets say we make the playoffs with this roster, if the season finished today we would play the Celtics in the first round. Our starting 5 is currently Felton (25 yrs old), Jackson (31), Wallace (27), Diaw (27) and Chandler (27), and we’d need to keep the same roster for next year, where you’d think with those ages wouldn’t get worse and should again be in the playoffs. Then we can rid ourselves of Mohammed or Chandler or resign them for less and diminish their roles which creates salary and we can then sign someone better and hopefully younger which improves the team without having to bottom out.

The only thing you need to do is not hand out poor contract or you do have to bottom out (See Desangana Diop’s monster we are stuck with).

by AirGiles on Dec 19, 2009 2:52 AM EST up reply actions  

"Bitter Henderson post?"

Once again, I didn’t even MENTION Henderson. And and1droid didn’t say anything about stars being created out of thin air either.

What I did say was that stars like Kobe, Bird, Jordan etc. are rare. The rest of the NBA is populated with tall guys whose skills are developed by their coaches at each age level.

I am not implying that some of these guys would have been stars if they had been given more minutes either. I outright said that coaches have a responsibility to work on improving the weaknesses of young players and that Brown is ineffective at that aspect of his job.

by Ourdaywillcome on Dec 19, 2009 1:36 AM EST up reply actions  

Larry Brown - Good Coach

I haven’t done any research into it but I’d just like to say I like Larry Brown as a coach I think he generally always gets the most out of the players available and creates a winning team, seriously the only team brown has ever coached that he didn’t get to .500 was the knicks and as D’Antoni is finding out now the problem there was not Brown.

Yes it might be true that he doesn’t give his rookies minutes but I’d say if the rookie has potential he gets 20mins a game (see Okur, Frye, Lee, Hughes and Ariza above). However it should also be mentioned that MacCulloch and Mohammed played behind better players in Coleman or Mutombo.

However all you need to do is look at LB’s record and you realise regardless of what he plays rookies he turns teams into winners and in most cases he leaves the franchise in a relatively good standing when he leaves (with a few exceptions which might be better explained by the coach that took his position). So stop Brown bashing and just support the Bobcats and know that if we get the talent here Brown IS a coach that can take them to a championship, few other coaches genuinely can claim that.

by AirGiles on Dec 18, 2009 11:52 PM EST reply actions  

You claim he improves teams...

But how much better are the Bobcats, really? We’re maybe a few games improved from the Vincent era, and we’re paying out our ass in player payroll and staff salaries to do it.

Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE

by MichaelProcton on Dec 19, 2009 11:26 AM EST up reply actions  

Seriously

As people have already said we only have one all-star level talent (and to be honest Josh Smith might beat him to the all-star weekend), and if you look at our squad compared to others I wouldn’t think we should be above bottom 4 in the east so yeah despite the increased payroll I’d say this team is about as good as it can be. Comparing Vincent to Brown is ridiculous, you know Brown has won a championship right?

by AirGiles on Dec 19, 2009 9:54 PM EST up reply actions  

You know Brown won that championship decades ago righ?

Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE

by MichaelProcton on Dec 19, 2009 10:04 PM EST up reply actions  

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