The Bobcats and the Summer of 2011
by David Arnott on Dec 22, 2008 3:25 PM EST
6 comments
It appears LeBron James has stumbled upon a career strategy that ups his risk of making less than the maximum amount of money over the course of his playing days, but does maximize all the leverage he could possibly want over the direction of whichever team employs him. I'd like to take credit for pointing this out long ago, but I only explained it to a couple buddies and didn't write it down, so Brian Windhorst gets mad props for asking LeBron directly if he'd sign an extension after this season, jumpstarting the conversation again and getting people to think creatively about LBJ's options, which led to Ziller's piece showing how LeBron should just sign short term deal after short term deal. It can be with the Cavs, who probably offer the best chance for him to win now, or with another team, come free agency.
To me, at least, it's clear this is the best strategy for LeBron to pursue. The primary risk is that, for some reason--injury, inexplicable loss of all basketball skills, change in NBA salary cap rules, Russian invasion of the continental U.S.--LeBron's value might decline and he'll be unable to command top dollar for his services. But the odds of that happening are near nil, considering that it would take a pretty catastrophic injury or other happenstance to convince owners that The King isn't worth every max dollar, given his marketing potential alone. The secondary risk is that if he leaves the Cavs and wanders from team to team, he'll weaken his identity with Cleveland and then fail to take root with any other fan base.
The primary upside of taking a succession of two or three year contracts is that until his mid-thirties, LeBron could keep his impending free agency as leverage, for if you have LeBron James around, you're a fool if you don't make every effort to give him a winning supporting cast. He would only have to wait a year or two to bail on any bad situation before jumping to a better situation. It can be argued that while LeBron is beloved in Cleveland, he's a national figure who will garner fans and other followers across the nation. In other words, there's little risk he'd end up like Roger Clemens, in the sense that he was a superstar without any fans of him as an individual.
In the past, LeBron and his camp have acted rationally by taking fewer years than possible and setting up the Summer of 2010 in the first place. Just as in that case, it's not necessarily wise for a player to take a fistful of money offered him in the present, given the salary rules. Consider, also, that LeBron makes as much money from Nike as he does from the Cavs, so he already has Eff You Money and can concentrate on such things as gathering rings and crafting a legacy. While the whispers say he's leaving Ohio, I tend to think he'll see the light and stay a short while longer.
What does this have to do with the Bobcats?
First, we're one of the non-destination teams in the league. I like Charlotte a lot. But it's not Los Angeles (Lakers only). It's not New York. Not Chicago. Not Miami. That makes four teams that can sell themselves on location alone. The next tier down is a bunch of teams that have location in their favor, but need extra convincing to sell free agents on the virtues of the location. Atlanta. New Jersey. Los Angeles Clippers. Golden State. Houston. If you're a rich young man told you can choose to live in any of the NBA cities, there are nine teams whose locales stand out above the rest, just by virtue of being happenin' places. Obviously, depending on the person, he might discount Golden State and add Boston. Whatever. I'm not being precise.
Like I said, I enjoy living in Charlotte. I also like Cleveland a lot. But as a dude in his mid-twenties, if someone offered me a job in Manhattan that paid me enough to live a mostly-carefree lifestyle, and I could bring people I cared about with me? Hell to the yeah, I'd take it. In the summer of 2010, free agents will get to choose among all the NBA cities, and I'm guaranteeing that unless a given city has a championship team at the ready--Cleveland, Orlando, Portland, San Antonio--free agents will discount Charlotte, Milwaukee, Oklahoma City, Minneapolis, Memphis, and all other places that simply can't stack up with the Iconic Places, before they even consider what kind of organization and money the franchise can offer.
There are only so many free agents, and if LeBron leads the way with this rational choice, the other top-tier potential free agents may follow. Again, keep in mind that these are a bunch of guys ranging in age from their mid twenties to early thirties. None of them will want to go live in a relatively low-population, low-visibility, city and try to bring its basketball team up from the morass, no matter the money.
It's time to face reality. Charlotte cannot and should not plan to compete for top free agents in 2010. Yes, I'm still hung up on JRich and how his contract expired in 2011, but it's still a viable strategy to aim for that free agent class instead of the feeding frenzy in 2010.
We'd have the following players going in to the 2011-12 season, assuming nobody else in the league is stupid enough to take on our obscenely untradeable contracts, we'll drop Ajinca, we won't sign anyone to extensions, we won't trade picks, and the league extends its CBA:
Star Free Agent or Trade Acquisition -- $14.00
Emeka -- $12.54
Gerald -- $10.65
Kirk Hinrich -- $8.00
Carroll -- $3.90
2009-10 5th Pick (big) -- $3.13
2010-11 8th Pick (swing) -- $2.29
2011-12 8th Pick (big) -- $2.20
Reasonable Veteran -- $3.50
Reasonable Veteran -- $3.50
Minimum Youngster -- $0.80
Minimum Youngster -- $0.80
Minimum Youngster -- $0.80
Minimum Youngster -- $0.80
Note this also assumes that we won't have to give up our first round pick to Denver any time soon. See Kirk Hinrich? I'd see if Chicago is willing to swap him out for Diaw since Hinrich is completely redundant with Derrick Rose on board. Some other team might like Diaw, too, and a three way deal might make sense in order to get Chicago a true big man. Hinrich would immediately become the Bobcats' point guard because I'd use DJ Augustin to either package away nasty contracts or land an excellent player who expires after 2010 from a team trying to clear cap space for that summer. Richard Jefferson seems like a natural fit, even if Milwaukee's not likely to be big players in 2010, since the Bucks don't have a set point guard. The Bobcats can also land Chris Kaman for a slightly lesser price.
The beauty of it all is that if two of the lottery picks pan out into better than average players, we'll have a team attractive to a quality free agent because we'll be roughly $12 million under the cap going into that summer. Find a useful player in the second round or find someone cheaper than the Reasonable Veterans above, and we're talking about being able to offer someone max money to be an offensive force on a defense-first team, with Gerald as a reasonable second option and Hinrich able to hit enough threes to keep 'em honest.
Portland's not likely to let Brandon Roy go, but he's the cream of the '06 draft. Someone like Rudy Gay might be available, too. The big catch will be Carmelo, defensive woes and all. Say the Bobcats abandon all hope of competing in the 2010 free agent free for all. Say they aim for the summer of 2011. Yes, they'll be getting leftovers. But the cupboard won't be that bare.
To me, at least, it's clear this is the best strategy for LeBron to pursue. The primary risk is that, for some reason--injury, inexplicable loss of all basketball skills, change in NBA salary cap rules, Russian invasion of the continental U.S.--LeBron's value might decline and he'll be unable to command top dollar for his services. But the odds of that happening are near nil, considering that it would take a pretty catastrophic injury or other happenstance to convince owners that The King isn't worth every max dollar, given his marketing potential alone. The secondary risk is that if he leaves the Cavs and wanders from team to team, he'll weaken his identity with Cleveland and then fail to take root with any other fan base.
The primary upside of taking a succession of two or three year contracts is that until his mid-thirties, LeBron could keep his impending free agency as leverage, for if you have LeBron James around, you're a fool if you don't make every effort to give him a winning supporting cast. He would only have to wait a year or two to bail on any bad situation before jumping to a better situation. It can be argued that while LeBron is beloved in Cleveland, he's a national figure who will garner fans and other followers across the nation. In other words, there's little risk he'd end up like Roger Clemens, in the sense that he was a superstar without any fans of him as an individual.
In the past, LeBron and his camp have acted rationally by taking fewer years than possible and setting up the Summer of 2010 in the first place. Just as in that case, it's not necessarily wise for a player to take a fistful of money offered him in the present, given the salary rules. Consider, also, that LeBron makes as much money from Nike as he does from the Cavs, so he already has Eff You Money and can concentrate on such things as gathering rings and crafting a legacy. While the whispers say he's leaving Ohio, I tend to think he'll see the light and stay a short while longer.
What does this have to do with the Bobcats?
First, we're one of the non-destination teams in the league. I like Charlotte a lot. But it's not Los Angeles (Lakers only). It's not New York. Not Chicago. Not Miami. That makes four teams that can sell themselves on location alone. The next tier down is a bunch of teams that have location in their favor, but need extra convincing to sell free agents on the virtues of the location. Atlanta. New Jersey. Los Angeles Clippers. Golden State. Houston. If you're a rich young man told you can choose to live in any of the NBA cities, there are nine teams whose locales stand out above the rest, just by virtue of being happenin' places. Obviously, depending on the person, he might discount Golden State and add Boston. Whatever. I'm not being precise.
Like I said, I enjoy living in Charlotte. I also like Cleveland a lot. But as a dude in his mid-twenties, if someone offered me a job in Manhattan that paid me enough to live a mostly-carefree lifestyle, and I could bring people I cared about with me? Hell to the yeah, I'd take it. In the summer of 2010, free agents will get to choose among all the NBA cities, and I'm guaranteeing that unless a given city has a championship team at the ready--Cleveland, Orlando, Portland, San Antonio--free agents will discount Charlotte, Milwaukee, Oklahoma City, Minneapolis, Memphis, and all other places that simply can't stack up with the Iconic Places, before they even consider what kind of organization and money the franchise can offer.
There are only so many free agents, and if LeBron leads the way with this rational choice, the other top-tier potential free agents may follow. Again, keep in mind that these are a bunch of guys ranging in age from their mid twenties to early thirties. None of them will want to go live in a relatively low-population, low-visibility, city and try to bring its basketball team up from the morass, no matter the money.
It's time to face reality. Charlotte cannot and should not plan to compete for top free agents in 2010. Yes, I'm still hung up on JRich and how his contract expired in 2011, but it's still a viable strategy to aim for that free agent class instead of the feeding frenzy in 2010.
We'd have the following players going in to the 2011-12 season, assuming nobody else in the league is stupid enough to take on our obscenely untradeable contracts, we'll drop Ajinca, we won't sign anyone to extensions, we won't trade picks, and the league extends its CBA:
Star Free Agent or Trade Acquisition -- $14.00
Emeka -- $12.54
Gerald -- $10.65
Kirk Hinrich -- $8.00
Carroll -- $3.90
2009-10 5th Pick (big) -- $3.13
2010-11 8th Pick (swing) -- $2.29
2011-12 8th Pick (big) -- $2.20
Reasonable Veteran -- $3.50
Reasonable Veteran -- $3.50
Minimum Youngster -- $0.80
Minimum Youngster -- $0.80
Minimum Youngster -- $0.80
Minimum Youngster -- $0.80
Note this also assumes that we won't have to give up our first round pick to Denver any time soon. See Kirk Hinrich? I'd see if Chicago is willing to swap him out for Diaw since Hinrich is completely redundant with Derrick Rose on board. Some other team might like Diaw, too, and a three way deal might make sense in order to get Chicago a true big man. Hinrich would immediately become the Bobcats' point guard because I'd use DJ Augustin to either package away nasty contracts or land an excellent player who expires after 2010 from a team trying to clear cap space for that summer. Richard Jefferson seems like a natural fit, even if Milwaukee's not likely to be big players in 2010, since the Bucks don't have a set point guard. The Bobcats can also land Chris Kaman for a slightly lesser price.
The beauty of it all is that if two of the lottery picks pan out into better than average players, we'll have a team attractive to a quality free agent because we'll be roughly $12 million under the cap going into that summer. Find a useful player in the second round or find someone cheaper than the Reasonable Veterans above, and we're talking about being able to offer someone max money to be an offensive force on a defense-first team, with Gerald as a reasonable second option and Hinrich able to hit enough threes to keep 'em honest.
Portland's not likely to let Brandon Roy go, but he's the cream of the '06 draft. Someone like Rudy Gay might be available, too. The big catch will be Carmelo, defensive woes and all. Say the Bobcats abandon all hope of competing in the 2010 free agent free for all. Say they aim for the summer of 2011. Yes, they'll be getting leftovers. But the cupboard won't be that bare.
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I know that you're down on Diaw and Augustin, but I don't see how you can justify a Diaw/Hinrich trade.
Diaw has played well with the Bobcats so far (17-7-4-1-1, on 53% shooting). Even when his numbers trail off a bit, he still complements the team well. Wallace can help make up for his rebounding deficiencies, and his interior passing is already helping Emeka, who's never really been able to create much offense on his own. He's also setting up Wallace for easy baskets.
On the other hand, you have Hinrich, who's averaged around 6 assists and three turnovers a game for his career?
I know this is just a thought experiment, but you're assuming that Emeka and Wallace stick around until 2011. I don't see how Hinrich, even with his solid defense, makes that team better than Diaw.
Diaw has played well with the Bobcats so far (17-7-4-1-1, on 53% shooting). Even when his numbers trail off a bit, he still complements the team well. Wallace can help make up for his rebounding deficiencies, and his interior passing is already helping Emeka, who's never really been able to create much offense on his own. He's also setting up Wallace for easy baskets.
On the other hand, you have Hinrich, who's averaged around 6 assists and three turnovers a game for his career?
I know this is just a thought experiment, but you're assuming that Emeka and Wallace stick around until 2011. I don't see how Hinrich, even with his solid defense, makes that team better than Diaw.
by Greg on Dec 22, 2008 4:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I honestly see us making a wallace trade in the near future, as there are rumors flying in LA sources of a Wallace<>Odom trade, but there is also some discussion on bobcats planet about Felton and Okafor going into a 3 team blockbuster. I'm honestly hoping the bobcats do what they need to in the near term and forget about 2010, I mean that's more than a full season plus this one away. We should focus on getting some good trades done, moving up in the draft to get Curry to fill the spot J-Rich's departure left etc. I also feel a starting lineup of DJ, Bell, Diaw, Odom, Big (Okafor if not traded) would be wicked.
Anyway, hope to bump into you sometime at a game, I'm always in the team store at 4:30-5 and try to get down the stairs of 101 at 5:30. Cant miss me, got the bobcats tattoo on my right arm :)
Chris
Anyway, hope to bump into you sometime at a game, I'm always in the team store at 4:30-5 and try to get down the stairs of 101 at 5:30. Cant miss me, got the bobcats tattoo on my right arm :)
Chris
by Anonymous on Dec 22, 2008 10:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Greg -- One of my admitted biases is that I LOVE defense. It's tough to think about defense mattering because analysts generally don't pay it any mind unless the dude is ridiculous at it, or he can't play offense at all. Anyway, Hinrich's career pts/reb/ast/to/PER, rates at per 36 minutes:
14.7/3.6/6.5/2.4/14.9
All Defensive 2nd Team in 2007
Felton:
13.8/3.4/6.8/2.7/13.7
Never confused with a defensive ace
and for kicks, Augustin:
16.2/2.2/5.6/2.5/15.3
Offense is a wash, and defense kicks Hinrich way above the two guys we have.
What about Diaw? Plaing mostly in the scoring-happy D'Antoni system:
11.0/6.0/5.0/2.4/13.0
Don't let the hot start fool you. He's had all sorts of chances to succeed and fallen apart with all but one of them. We should use his temporary motivation and his redundancy on this team to improve the point guard position, where I think we're most hurt by relative weakness to the rest of the league. Solid two guards grow on trees, and Emeka's such a defensive presence I'd be willing to take my chances on Gerald at the four if it means signing a transforming swingman like Melo.
Anon -- I would love the Cats to build around Okafor's spirit and be a group of defensive beasts with sneaky scoring potential (In my fantasies, we play Tayshaun, Gerald, and Josh Smith at the 2 through 4, which is kind of sad, that my basketball fantasies don't involve LBJ or Kobe. Aaaaaaaanyway...). I think it'd be cheaper than trying to outgun the opposition, too. To sum up, I'd like them to choose a philosophy and build with it. To my mind, DJ and Okafor are a one way street: Okafor makes up for some of DJ's defensive shortcomings, but their games have no synergy on offense, since Emeka's been subpar at everything except rebound-putbacks. Get him to develop a fifteen-foot game, though, and Emeka can play with anyone.
14.7/3.6/6.5/2.4/14.9
All Defensive 2nd Team in 2007
Felton:
13.8/3.4/6.8/2.7/13.7
Never confused with a defensive ace
and for kicks, Augustin:
16.2/2.2/5.6/2.5/15.3
Offense is a wash, and defense kicks Hinrich way above the two guys we have.
What about Diaw? Plaing mostly in the scoring-happy D'Antoni system:
11.0/6.0/5.0/2.4/13.0
Don't let the hot start fool you. He's had all sorts of chances to succeed and fallen apart with all but one of them. We should use his temporary motivation and his redundancy on this team to improve the point guard position, where I think we're most hurt by relative weakness to the rest of the league. Solid two guards grow on trees, and Emeka's such a defensive presence I'd be willing to take my chances on Gerald at the four if it means signing a transforming swingman like Melo.
Anon -- I would love the Cats to build around Okafor's spirit and be a group of defensive beasts with sneaky scoring potential (In my fantasies, we play Tayshaun, Gerald, and Josh Smith at the 2 through 4, which is kind of sad, that my basketball fantasies don't involve LBJ or Kobe. Aaaaaaaanyway...). I think it'd be cheaper than trying to outgun the opposition, too. To sum up, I'd like them to choose a philosophy and build with it. To my mind, DJ and Okafor are a one way street: Okafor makes up for some of DJ's defensive shortcomings, but their games have no synergy on offense, since Emeka's been subpar at everything except rebound-putbacks. Get him to develop a fifteen-foot game, though, and Emeka can play with anyone.
by David Arnott on Dec 22, 2008 11:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
David - I understand the urge to improve defensively. The team probably won't be championship caliber until they improve on that front.
I just don't think that the team will go anywhere, period, until they improve their scoring down low. As you said, Okafor could play with anyone if he developed a fifteen foot game. But he hasn't yet, and if he hasn't in five years, what are they odds of him doing so any time soon?
As much as Diaw's lack of defense is a detriment to the team, it's a rare player who's stellar on both offense and defense. The way I see it, Diaw and Okafor exist as a sort of yin and yang down low. Diaw, though his passing, improves Okafor's offense. Okafor, through his anchoring of the paint, allows Diaw to focus more on steals and weak-side defense.
I'm not fooled by his hot start. I'm ready for his numbers to fall. But I don't think it's foolish to expect numbers more along the lines of his 05-06 MIP season when he drops (with a reduction in assists stemming from his removal from the Suns).
If he can provide that, he can be the Bobcat's full-time four. If he can be the full-time four, Wallace is spared from some of the contact that likely led to his concussion issues recently. Not to mention the fact he seems to produce more at the three.
So that's a wall of text, but in the end, I have to admit that we're likely looking for different things from the team. You're looking for an upgrade in defense, and I'm looking for an upgrade in offense (which I think we'd both agree, Diaw provides to some extent). Still though, striving to make marked improvements on either end of the court is only likely to put us into the bottom of the playoff seeding. The Bobcats are a team full of role players looking for a star; here's hoping they can grab one sometime soon.
I just don't think that the team will go anywhere, period, until they improve their scoring down low. As you said, Okafor could play with anyone if he developed a fifteen foot game. But he hasn't yet, and if he hasn't in five years, what are they odds of him doing so any time soon?
As much as Diaw's lack of defense is a detriment to the team, it's a rare player who's stellar on both offense and defense. The way I see it, Diaw and Okafor exist as a sort of yin and yang down low. Diaw, though his passing, improves Okafor's offense. Okafor, through his anchoring of the paint, allows Diaw to focus more on steals and weak-side defense.
I'm not fooled by his hot start. I'm ready for his numbers to fall. But I don't think it's foolish to expect numbers more along the lines of his 05-06 MIP season when he drops (with a reduction in assists stemming from his removal from the Suns).
If he can provide that, he can be the Bobcat's full-time four. If he can be the full-time four, Wallace is spared from some of the contact that likely led to his concussion issues recently. Not to mention the fact he seems to produce more at the three.
So that's a wall of text, but in the end, I have to admit that we're likely looking for different things from the team. You're looking for an upgrade in defense, and I'm looking for an upgrade in offense (which I think we'd both agree, Diaw provides to some extent). Still though, striving to make marked improvements on either end of the court is only likely to put us into the bottom of the playoff seeding. The Bobcats are a team full of role players looking for a star; here's hoping they can grab one sometime soon.
by Greg on Dec 23, 2008 3:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Also, a quick addendum: what makes you feel that Diaw is redundant on this team? It's been wonderful having a legit four, and he brings a facet to the team I don't think anyone else is bringing at the moment.
by Greg on Dec 23, 2008 3:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Diaw's redundancy
Because he doesn't rebound, he's not really a four. He's a swingman with post abilities, not a post player with a perimeter game. If Larry Brown is going to run the team the way he's always run teams, I'd rather go for a more traditional big man to complement Gerald's play at the three. It could work with Diaw, but I can't see Brown sticking with him over the long haul, given the known weaknesses in his game. Ironically, the "offense" Sam Vincent installed last year would be perfect for Diaw, with the big men planted on the elbows.
Because he doesn't rebound, he's not really a four. He's a swingman with post abilities, not a post player with a perimeter game. If Larry Brown is going to run the team the way he's always run teams, I'd rather go for a more traditional big man to complement Gerald's play at the three. It could work with Diaw, but I can't see Brown sticking with him over the long haul, given the known weaknesses in his game. Ironically, the "offense" Sam Vincent installed last year would be perfect for Diaw, with the big men planted on the elbows.
by David Arnott on Dec 23, 2008 10:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
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